Tips for Betting on the 2026 World Cup

The 2026 World Cup will be the first to feature 48 teams across 3 host countries, and the betting markets have already started pricing in what that means. Caesars expects this to be “the highest-handle soccer competition the industry has ever seen,” partly because games will fall in U.S.-friendly time zones. That fact alone should tell you something about where the money is going and how early it makes sense to start paying attention. Odds are moving now. Spain has already shortened from +1000 after the 2022 tournament to +400 following the December 2025 group draw. If you are planning to bet on this World Cup, the preparation should have started months ago. For those catching up, here is what matters.

The Favorites and What the Numbers Say

Spain leads outright winner odds at +400. England sits at +600, France at +700, and both Brazil and Argentina are priced at +800. These numbers come from post-draw pricing, meaning they already account for group placement and potential bracket paths.

On prediction platforms like Polymarket, the implied probabilities tell a similar but slightly different story. Spain holds a 16% implied probability there, with over $131 million in total trading volume on the World Cup winner market. England trades at 13.5% and France at 12.3%. The gaps between sportsbook odds and prediction market pricing can be small, but they are worth tracking if you are looking for spots where the price is softer on one side.

Argentina and Brazil both sitting at +800 is worth a closer look. Argentina won the 2022 tournament and still has Messi on the roster, though his role and fitness at that point remain open questions. Brazil has underperformed in recent tournaments relative to their talent pool, which can sometimes mean the market has already discounted them further than warranted.

Where to Start With Outright and Futures Markets

The 48-team format for 2026 means more games, more knockout rounds, and more room for upsets to alter the bracket. That extra layer of unpredictability makes outright winner and Golden Boot futures worth studying early, before lines tighten closer to kickoff. Spain opened at +1000 after 2022 and now sits at +400 following the group draw.

Comparing prices across sportsbooks, prediction platforms, and world cup betting exchanges like Polymarket can reveal discrepancies worth acting on. Polymarket currently implies Spain at 16%, while England trades at 13.5% and France at 12.3%, and those gaps between books and exchanges often point to where the value sits.

Why the 48-Team Format Changes the Math

Previous World Cups had 32 teams. The expansion to 48 adds an extra knockout round before the quarterfinals. That means a team now needs to win 4 knockout games to reach the final, not 3. The additional round introduces more variance into the tournament, and variance is where longer-priced bets become more interesting.

With more games on the schedule, there are also more opportunities for fatigue, injuries, and rotation to affect outcomes. A team with strong squad depth has a measurable advantage in this format. If you are evaluating outright bets, factoring in the depth of each roster matters more here than it did in previous tournaments.

The group stage itself also changes. Groups of 3 teams, with the top 2 advancing plus the best 3rd-place finishers, reduce the number of dead-rubber matches. Most games will carry weight, which tends to make group-stage betting lines tighter and harder to exploit.

The Host Country Bump

The United States saw its outright odds move from +6600 to +5000 at BetMGM after landing a favorable Group D draw. That kind of movement is typical for host nations, which tend to receive public money early. The question is how much of that price movement reflects genuine form versus crowd sentiment.

Historically, host nations perform above their ranking in World Cups. Playing in front of home fans, skipping travel between distant venues, and acclimatizing to local conditions all contribute to that trend. With the U.S. co-hosting alongside Canada and Mexico, those advantages apply unevenly depending on which stadiums a team gets assigned to. But the U.S. will play group games domestically, and that alone gives them an edge the odds may not fully capture at +5000.

Long Shots Worth Watching

Morocco at 80/1 has drawn attention after their 2022 semifinal run, where they became the first African team to reach that stage. Their squad has continued to develop since then, and their defensive structure under Walid Regragui gave top teams serious problems in Qatar. At those odds, a small futures stake carries a strong return if they make another deep run in a format that gives more room for it.

Golden Boot Futures

Kylian Mbappé is the favorite to win the Golden Boot, which makes sense given that he won it at the 2022 World Cup with 8 goals. Harry Kane follows at +550. Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi are both priced at +1200.

The expanded format adds more group-stage matches to the schedule, and top scorers tend to pad their numbers in those earlier rounds. If you are betting this market, consider how many games each player’s team is expected to play. A favorite that reaches the final will play 7 or 8 matches total. That volume matters for accumulating goals.

Closing Thoughts

Betting on the World Cup rewards preparation and patience. Prices will keep moving between now and kickoff, and early positions on futures markets let you lock in value before the public money arrives in force. Track odds across multiple books and prediction platforms. Look at roster depth, bracket paths, and the structural differences the 48-team format creates. The information is available now, and the lines have not yet fully absorbed all of it.

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