Chicago Cubs: Has Alex Bregman already aged into decline?

When the Chicago Cubs signed third baseman Alex Bregman to a 5-year, $175 million contract this past offseason, there were hardly any voices of dissent.

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After all, Bregman had earned a reputation as a lineup linchpin and a top-tier defender throughout his ten-year big league career—a ten-year career, by the way, that has featured an impressive degree of consistency throughout.

The Cubs probably weren’t expecting “full” Bregman, who turned 32 just days after Opening Day, through the five years he’d be with the team. But three peak or near-peak years and two sub-peak years would be fine.

Bregman already in quick decline?

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However, as things sit right now, there’s a distinct feeling among many that Bregman may have already initiated his decline.

Although he’s been hitting significantly better in recent days (.345 through his last seven games), the overall picture being painted this year is that he’s lost his power game and the ability generate big, successful swings.

Nick Selbe of SI.com recently crunched the numbers and put cold, hard facts behind the feeling that something’s been off:

“The three-time All-Star is showing some concerning signs that his age was creeping up on him. Entering Wednesday, his 17.1% strikeout rate, while well below league average (22.1%), is his highest since his rookie season. What’s most concerning is that it’s being fueled by a decrease in zone swing rate, an increase in chase rate and an uptick in swinging strike rate. That decline in swing decision-making and contact rate has not come as part of a tradeoff for more power—Bregman’s slugging percentage (.356) and ISO (.097) are both easily career lows.

Anchoring all of this is the fact that Bregman’s average bat speed has dwindled beneath 70 mph for the first time in his career.”

Brian Kelder of North Side Baseball also talked about the Cubs’ troubling recent model that leans heavily on veterans:

“The Cubs are filled with reliable veterans with a solid track record. But there is a hidden regression in older players that models can’t always predict. As players age, they can go from ‘good’ to ‘declining’ quickly…

Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman are locked in for years. If their decline this year is real, this will age quite poorly.”

Cubs need a complete Bregman

Bregman can certainly contribute beyond what he does at the plate. That’s why the Cubs were willing to offer him an extended contract at his age. He’s still defensively sound and is well-known to be an exceedingly positive clubhouse presence.

But this Cubs team needed a steady bat to replace the lineup hole left by Kyle Tucker and the ones that may need to be filled if/when Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ are lost via free agency.

With just a .360 slugging percentage and a .703 OPS overall, Bregman isn’t that guy right now—and the fear is that he may have already aged past being that guy.

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