Chicago Cubs: High picks over the past decade haven’t been pretty

The 2026 MLB Amateur Draft has arrived as fans look to the future, but first, we look over the past decade and evaluate how the first round has gone for the Chicago Cubs. It’s safe to say that the recent collection of high picks dating back to 2017 has not looked particularly great.

This comes after a seven-year stretch (2011-2015) that saw the Cubs draft Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Ian Happ in the first round.

It’s always important to state the obvious that not every big prospect pans out. No team is going to have a decade of perfection in hitting on their high draft picks. Some players thrive, some play adequately, some get hurt, some get traded, and some don’t pan out for various reasons. Some also bloom later in their professional careers.

Either way, here is a look back at the Cubs first round picks since 2017-2025.

The good.

The hit that clearly stands out is Nico Hoerner. It’s been rough in 2026 so far, but overall, he has been worth a 21.3 bWAR with 825 career hits and is a two-time Gold Glove winner. He was drafted 24th overall in 2018 and made his debut late in 2019 after several injuries forced the Cubs to call him up for need.

Hoerner is one of six Cubs first-rounders since 2000 to eclipse the 20.0 bWAR mark in the Majors. The others include Bryant, Baez, Happ, Schwarber, and Josh Donaldson (who never played in a Cubs uniform).

The not so great.

The turn of the decade has not been kind to the Cubs in the first round. Outside of Hoerner, the Cubs from 2017-2021 drafted Alex Lange (2017, 30th overall), Brendon Little (2017, 27th overall), Ryan Jensen (2019, 27th overall), Ed Howard (2020, 16th overall), and Jordan Wicks (2021, 21st overall). Granted, these picks came off the “Golden Era” of Cubs baseball, so most were late first-rounders, but first-rounders no less.

Lange never pitched for the Cubs; he was traded away as a prospect in 2019 in the Nick Castellanos deal. He’s been decent with the Tigers and Royals, pitching to a 4.08 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 1.4 WHIP, and 259 strikeouts in 222.2 innings. Castellanos was a baller in 2019, but the Cubs failed to make the postseason. Little pitched 2/3 of an inning as a Cub in 2022, giving up three runs. He’s since been with the Blue Jays and pitched pretty well for them in 2024 and 2025, posting a 3.32 ERA, 3.71 FIP, and 1.3 WHIP in 128 appearances.

Jensen and Howard have not seen the Majors. At 28 years old, Jensen is back with the Cubs organization after bouncing between the Mariners (who claimed him from the Cubs in 2023) and Twins organizations. He sports a career 4.66 ERA in the minors. Howard, the local shortstop from Mount Carmel, is only 24, but the bat has not come around. In the minors, he’s hit .213/.270/.287 in 314 games with 11 homers. He’s long fallen off the top prospect rankings.

The jury is out.

Recent high draft picks cannot be ruled as busts or hits yet. Bringing back Wicks into this fold, so far it’s looked like a bust. He’s pitched to a 5.72 ERA, 4.69 FIP, and 1.6 WHIP in 30 MLB appearances so far. He’s also had some injury issues in recent years. It looks bad now, and odds say it will remain that way. There is still a chance he could find some value, though it’s hard to depend on it.

One of the most exciting recent high picks by the Cubs was Cade Horton (2022, 7th overall). He electrified in his rookie season last year in 2025 (2.67 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 97 strikeouts in 118 innings). The elbow injury was devastating this year, and it will be a while before he pitches again. He was looking so promising.

The most recent high pick on the team is Matt Shaw (2023, 13th overall). He’s had his ups and downs so far in the Majors, but he’s only 24. Shaw has a .737 OPS on the season and has shown defensive prowess on the infield, and is getting settled in the outfield. Whether he is trade bait or the future utility man, in a small sample, there is enough to hope that he can be a valuable piece.

Last to note are Cam Smith (2024, 14th overall) and Ethan Conrad (2025, 17th overall). Smith was traded to the Astros in the Kyle Tucker deal. He’s only 23, but he won’t be a part of the Cubs future. Conrad just arrived at low-A Myrtle Beach and has a ways to go.

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Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-first-round-picks/