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8月24日新闻线索

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    一、宏观新闻
    1、多项指标恶化中国经济或仍在筑底
   
1)内容:8月汇丰制造业PMI初值连续十个月处于荣枯分水岭下方,并创9个月新低。分项指数中,新出口订单指标大幅恶化,预示制造业活动萎缩;企业存货压力上升,产成品库存上升至2004年有汇丰PMI数据系列以来的高点。诸多信号预示中国经济三季度仍将继续筑底。
   
2)点评:7月份的工业增加值,进出口、银行贷款等数据连同PMI表明中国经济仍处于下行趋势中,所引发的后果中,中央政府最担心的事情莫过于就业问题,因为这涉及社会是否稳定,所以就业方面的状况是当前宏观经济运行关注的重点,一旦就业问题突出,所有问题都会让位与此,包括房价问题,那时财政政策和货币政策将会变的更加积极,结构性改革措施也会加速出台。
   
2、中上协:红利税相关政策调整正在论证
   
1)内容:记者23日从中国上市公司协会获悉,该协会日前已向监管机构和税收主管部门上报了《关于推动完善上市公司有关税收政策的建议》的报告,相关问题已引起了有关部门重视,相关政策的调整论证正在进行。
   
2)点评:调整红利税,对股市构成当然利好,但是当前面临的问题是是市场供需失衡,而这不是调整红利税所能从根本上解决的,因此也无助于改变市场当前特征。
    二、行业新闻
   
1、住建部:正研究进一步强化市场调控的政策措施
   
1)内容:这位负责人表示,从这次对全国16个省(市)开展的督查情况看,个别地方出现了为强调稳增长,通过放松住房限购条件、发放购房补贴等方式,刺激住房消费的苗头。对此,国务院督查组已向有关地方政府提出明确的整改意见,要求出现放松调控政策的地区立即予以纠正,并强调各地不得以任何理由变相放松调控。住房城乡建设部按照国务院要求,正在密切监测房地产市场的变化,会同和配合有关部门,研究进一步强化市场调控的政策措施。
   
2)点评:房价调控有两种手段,一种是增加供给,但受制于18亿亩耕地红线,一种手段是限制需求,尤其是限制投资与投机性需求,政府选择后者,结果是抑制房价过快上涨势头,但是房租价格却出现了大幅度上涨,过去穷人只是买不起房,现在变的租不起房。就资本市场而言,房地产板块短期已经超跌,从概率上讲,随时都可能超跌反弹,已经没有杀跌的必要性。
    2、证监会拟允许券商代销金融产品
品种不受限
   
1)内容:8月23日,中国证监会就《证券公司代销金融产品管理规定(草案)》(简称草案)公开征求意见,证监会表示,草案对证券公司代销金融产品活动做了一般规定,证券公司无论代销何种金融产品,原则上均适用。
   
2)点评:当前市场低迷,存量资金运作而且还处于不断失血状态,所以市场运作以结构性行情为主,中小盘个股为主,公募基金做的是防御和成长,游资做的是题材,证券虽然受益于创新,未来发展空间较大,但是短期缺乏业绩支撑,因此也难有出色的表现。
    3、“鄂湘川黔滇”五省联合发文
磷矿开发准入门槛提高
   
1)内容:23日,“鄂湘川黔滇”五省联合印发磷矿资源管理等五项政策,五省联手强化磷矿开发准入,提高准入门槛。重点调控磷矿年度开采总量,促进磷矿合理开发利用,新建、改扩建磷矿采选项目要求也明显提高。机构分析认为,上述政策将提高行业集中度,利好磷矿资源龙头企业
   
2)点评:磷矿能否成为市场热点,主要取决于两点,第一点存量资金是否完全从酿酒、稀土中完美抽身,有力量实现新的布局,第二点磷矿石价格能否逆势上涨。
    4、IPv6安全专项有望9月发布
信息安全产业迎来拐点 
   
1)内容:2012年成为我国IPv6商用试点及产业化元年。发改委发布的“2012年下一代互联网技术研发、产业化和规模商用专项”(简称“产业化专项”)及“下一代互联网信息安全专项”(简称“安全专项”)均已取得实质进展。 
   
2)点评:“安全专项”目前已进入最后测试阶段,上市公司卫士通、启明星辰已入围最终测试,最终结果有望在9月发布。据悉,信息安全专项的补贴金额在数百万至千万元。
    三、公司新闻
    1、科大讯飞迎强援
中移动注资13.6亿元成为二股东
   
因筹划与中国移动的合作停牌10个交易日之久的科大讯飞(002230,前收盘价24.19元),今日正式公布方案。中国移动欲向科大讯飞注资13.6亿元成为后者的第二大股东。由于中国移动与苹果的合作一直未取得实质性进展,因而此次注资可看作是中移动无奈中的一种选择。

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