2024: The Pendulum Swings In A New Direction

Authored by Amir Taheri via The Gatestone Institute,

As 2024 draws to a close, one thing is certain across the globe: the pendulum of history is swinging away from the direction it had taken since the 1990s.

For almost three decades, it had swung towards what one might call soft-left, in its latest epiphanies as globalism, political correctness and multiculturalism — all versions of collectivism.

By collectivism, we mean ideologies that see humanity in terms of groups or herds rather than individuals, and nation-states as pawns for self-perpetuating global elites to move on their imaginary chessboard.

The first institution to get hit was the United Nations that, as its name suggests, was supposed to be a nonpartisan grouping of sovereign nation states working together within a commonly accepted framework of rules and traditions in the service of peace and international cooperation.

In the past few years, however, the UN has morphed into a partisan club for soft-left ideologues.

In those years, one of the UN Security Council’s veto-holding members, Russia, has invaded two countries, while another, the United States, tried to prop-up Iran’s moribund Islamist regime in the vain hope of bringing it in from the cold.

A third veto-holding member, China, has acted like a neighborhood bully wielding a knife and threatening everyone from the Strait of Malacca to the South China Sea.

The nadir came when UN Secretary-General António Guterres cast himself as an apologist-cum-advocate for Hamas in the name of “Palestinian rights.”

Another major institution of globalism, the European Union, has also been hit by corruption scandals, political skulduggery, bureaucracy and its members pulling in opposite directions even on key issues such as support for Ukraine.

Elsewhere, the Organization of American States, another collectivist outfit, has ceased to exist in a meaningful way. Its African version, the African Union, is also paralyzed, unable even to mediate among its members. On a smaller scale, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) split when three members left after military coups.

A number of other pseudo-collectivist outfits that had never been anything but expensive ghosts have continued to fade away, among them the Association of South East Asian Nations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, BRICS+, the Russian-led Eurasia phantom, various pan-Islamic money-spenders and time-wasters, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Arab League.

All that not to mention the so-called Axis of Resistance that the Islamic Republic of Iran had created at huge expense to “export revolution” to the four corners of the world.

The pendulum is swinging towards the old model of the nation-state that, first shaped in the 17th century, developed into the standard concept for organizing human societies within geopolitical borders set by historical processes.

Even a few years ago, mentioning the word “border” was tantamount sacrilege.

Borderlessness was à la mode: Doctors Without Borders, Reporters Without Borders, Lawyers Without Borders and, even Border Guards Without Borders, the latter in Europe.

In 2024, many borders that had disappeared have been re-installed, even between European nation-states.

In general, in elections held in Germany, Britain, France, Poland, and Austria, and the US presidential election, a key word was: border. In 2024, Turkey completed a 320-kilometer wall to seal off its border with Iran which, in turn, unveiled a plan for a 925-kilometer-long wall on its border with Pakistan.

The year’s big surprise was Donald J. Trump who, against all predictions by the global glitterati, won a rare victory by not only returning to the White House with a majority both of votes and of the Electoral College, but also with the Republican Party gaining control of both chambers of Congress plus a majority of state governorships.

The big loser of the year was Iran, which saw its 30-year investment in its imaginary Axis of Resistance buried under Syrian rubble.

The year’s revenant was Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who before the October 7, 2023, invasion by Hamas, seemed to be on his way into oblivion via a possible stint in the can. Within a few months, however, the world discovered a brand-new Netanyahu casting himself as an international statesman. British historian Andrew Roberts even compared him to Sir Winston Churchill, who was branded a sad failure in 1939 but praised as a hero a year later.

The year’s gambler was Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who got his nation involved in Syria’s dicey destiny, a gamble that could produce big winnings for him but might also end up serving him the same cup of poison that Iran had to imbibe.

The year’s yellowest of yellows was the Syrian despot, Bashar al-Assad, who took his family and money and fled without telling his entourage, let alone his Iranian allies, to also run for cover, leaving them exposed to humiliation, revenge and death.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy remained the romantic figure of the year, to collect air-miles by flying all over the world to seek assistance from mostly cynical techno-bureaucrats masquerading as political leaders, and ending with little more than photo-ops for them.

The title cynic of the year could be shared by French President Emmanuel Macron and the outgoing German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. Both have refined the affliction into an art to help them hang on to power a bit longer.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Argentine President Javier Milei, of Italian origin, might share the title of the pragmatist of the year by adding water to their respective ideological wines and practice politics as the art of the possible.

Russian President Vladimir Putin may get the title of hard-to-boil figure of the year. His war in Ukraine isn’t proceeding as he imagined, and the ultimate outcome of his ill-advised involvement in the Syrian imbroglio remains uncertain. His call for help to North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is humiliating by all accounts, and his growing dependence on Xi Jinping’s China is a matter of concern in Moscow.

Yet most polls show that almost 70 percent of Russians still trust Putin, even if they disagree with his invasion of Ukraine.

The title comedian of the year must go to South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, who declared martial law and sent the army to close the parliament, but quickly changed tone by saying sorry, I didn’t mean it.

All in all, not a bad year, and if the pendulum swings in the current direction, the best may be yet to come.