Impeached South Korean President Avoids Arrest After Intense Standoff With Police At Residence

South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol resisted an arrest attempt by an anti-corruption agency on Friday, extending a period of political instability that began with his emergency declaration of martial law on December 3. In addition to political turmoil, economic uncertainty continues to mount ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s second term of tariff wars, compounded by the nation’s worst aviation disaster on Sunday.

Here are the key developments that unfolded on Friday: 

• Arrest Attempt: The Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO), supported by 2,700 law enforcement officials, abandoned a five-hour standoff after being blocked by Yoon’s security team, including military personnel.

• Turmoil: Tensions escalated, and the CIO plans to summon Yoon’s security chief for questioning on Saturday.

• Opposition Calls for Action: Democratic Party member Park Chan-dae urged the CIO to retry the arrest and hold obstructing individuals accountable.

• Yoon’s Defense: His lawyers condemned the warrants as “illegal and invalid” and have filed a court challenge.

• Impeachment Trial: Yoon’s trial is set for January 14, with supporters rallying outside his residence as he defies CIO orders to cooperate.

• Domestic Market Reaction: Despite the political turmoil, financial markets showed resilience, with the Kospi index rising 1.8% and the won strengthening.

The CIO’s attempt to arrest Yoon was backed by 2,700 police officers surrounding his residence in Seoul’s Yongsan district. After a multi-hour standoff, the impeached president’s security team blocked police and investigators from executing the arrest warrant. 

While the Constitutional Court will take six months or so on whether to confirm the impeachment or reinstate Yoon, authorities are also investigating criminal charges for insurrection. Yoon has rejected numerous attempts by the CIO for questioning. 

“Executing the arrest warrant was virtually impossible due to the continued standoff,” the CIO wrote in a statement, adding, “Future measures will be decided after a review. We express our deepest regret over the suspect’s refusal to comply with legal procedures.”

Yoon’s lawyer released a statement that described the CIO’s authority to investigate insurrection as not valid and that attempting to “forcefully execute” arrest and search warrants by mobilizing police troops is unlawful. 

Who would’ve ever thought that Asia’s fourth-largest economy would transform into an epic banana republic just three days into the new year? 

SEOUL (@CNN) — 12:45PM — YOON ARREST STANDOFF — Hour 6 — This is what demonstration in *support* of South Korea’s suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol looks like. Prosecutors & corruption investigators are *still* trying to detain Yoon for questioning, a 1st for a sitting president. pic.twitter.com/LJPi5CK4U1

— Mike Valerio (@ValerioCNN) January 3, 2025

The turmoil is far from over: Park Chan-dae, the floor leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, advised the CIO to arrest Yoon as soon as possible, adding anyone obstructing should be arrested. 

It appears that the opposition Democratic Party wants a mugshot of the impeached president before the trial begins on January 14.

For more clarity on Yoon’s transition scenarios, Goldman analysts outlined the timeline as follows:

The benchmark Kospi stock index jumped nearly 2% in domestic markets, while the won rose about half a percent against the dollar on the day. 

Commenting on markets, Bloomberg’s Markets Live blog wrote:

The ~2% gain in the Kospi would be impressive enough if it came in a vacuum, or amid a global meltup. But the surge is all the more striking given the fresh political conflict. That signals that dip buyers decided South Korean valuations are simply too cheap to resist for long, so the bottom is likely in for the Kospi absent another full-blown constitutional crisis.

South Korean stocks started sliding in August, well before President Yoon’s December decision to impose martial law. That opened up a yawning gap between the tech-heavy Kospi and the Nasdaq which was bound to eventually lure in some speculative money.

Spot the divergence between Kospi and MSCI World Index….

Meanwhile, Graham Ambrose, managing director of Goldman’s equity franchise sales team in London, told clients last month…

Goldman Sees “Buying Opportunities” In South Korean Stocks After Martial Law Turmoil https://t.co/MOqqMNaAHO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 3, 2024

Bottom-fishing Korean stocks amid an ongoing and potentially worsening political crisis appear risky but certainly worth watching for potential opportunities.