Russia Achieves Major Battlefield Breakthrough In Eastern Ukraine As Trump Inauguration Nears

Russia on Monday announced a key breakthrough in eastern Ukraine, saying its forces have captured the “important logistics hub” of Kurakhove, following months of steady gains.

Russian forces “have fully liberated the town of Kurakhove — the biggest settlement in southwestern Donbas,” the Defense Ministry (MoD) announced on Telegram.

The MoD claimed further that the Ukrainian army had lost more than 12,000 of the 15,000 troops deployed to defend Kurakhove, figures which are not independently verifiable. The military also said Ukraine lost about “3,000 pieces of various weapons and military hardware, including 40 tanks and other armored combat vehicles.”

The city has long been a strategic Ukrainian army stronghold in the Donetsk region, with an industrial zone and a (since shuttered) thermal plant and a reservoir. The city’s importance is also in its location, sitting on a central highway connecting eastern and southern Ukraine.

The fight for Kurakhove has been on since mid-October, during which time heavy shelling has persisted. The Russian MoD statement has additionally described Kurakhove as “a powerful fortified area with a developed network of pillboxes and underground communications.”

A Ukrainian military official has claimed the Russian victory declarations are premature. “As of this morning, battles were ongoing within [the city] limits, so the enemy’s announcements about capturing the city are clearly rushed,” a spokesman said.

However, there is some independent confirmation of the Russian breakthrough via Associated Press and other regional sources:

According to Meduza’s military analysts, Russian forces reached the center of Kurakhove in mid-December, encircling nearly the entire city from the north, east, and south, and raising the Russian flag over the municipal government headquarters. At the time, however, Ukrainian forces still controlled the power station’s industrial zone and the pipe plant on the western side of the city. Ukrainian troops were forced out of the industrial zone just before New Year’s day and are now holding positions in Dachne, a village on Kurakhove’s outskirts, Meduza’s analysts say. 

DeepState, an OSINT project with close ties to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, also shows that Russian forces have seized Kurakhove. This comes after Ukrainian analysts reported that Russian troops were advancing in the area on January 5. 

Overhead view of the war-ravaged city of Kurakhove:

#UkraineRussiaWar
Place: #Kurakhove
Date: ~21.12.2024
Coordinates: 47.9781945, 37.2814659
Squad: #110Brigade
Description: Russian military raised a flag on the roof of a building in Kurakhove.

id: 21122024.1644
source: https://t.co/Vz8VhSuaBb
Map:… pic.twitter.com/fAx6gwBebp

— Military Summary (@MilitarySummary) December 21, 2024

Both warring sides have been seeking to achieve as much battlefield dominance as possible before Donald Trump takes office in two weeks. 

While Moscow was already in the driver’s seat, the capture of Kurakhove is being widely viewed as a decisive victory which will provide Russia with clear major leverage for any potential ceasefire negotiations under a new Trump administration.

Analyst Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment was quoted in AP as saying the future looks bleak for Kiev: “Ukraine is losing territory. The coldest part of the winter is yet ahead. The current theory of success is unclear, or what resources will be made available by the West in 2025,” he summarized.

And Washington Post writes, “Ukraine is in an increasingly dire state as Russia captures territory at the fastest pace since the start of the invasion, with Moscow capitalizing on its greatest advantage: manpower.”

Ukraine has in the past days launched a significant counteroffensive in Russia’s Kursk territory, but this accomplishes little strategically where the main theatre of war is happening in Donetsk. Russia has been patiently seeking to gain back ground in the border territory, with the population still evacuated.