“Things Are Going To Change. It’s Just When And How”
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Summit… and nothin’?
Monday’s US Presidents Day was also European Presidents and Prime Ministers Day, the latter at an emergency summit to discuss defence. Absent were Ukraine — ironic as Europe complains of being left out by the US — and Turkey, with the second-largest army in NATO.
EU Commission President von der Leyen was rhetorical: “Today in Paris we reaffirmed that Ukraine deserves peace through strength. Peace respectful of its independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, with strong security guarantees. Europe carries its full share of the military assistance to Ukraine. At the same time, we need a surge in defence in Europe.” The EU Council president said Europe should negotiate with Russia and design new European security architecture.
Then, as the FT put it, ‘European leaders clash over sending troops to Ukraine’: sadly, this is the only kind of clash EU leaders excel at. Almost everyone rejected sending their own troops to support Ukraine, except the UK, who can’t do much physically or financially. Even Poland won’t, as it looks to spend 6% of GDP on defence, because it might need them at home – or in the Baltics, if are* Europe, but the topic is a potential existential threat to fellow EU and Eurozone members. That used to require ‘Whatever It Takes’: but because that doesn’t now (directly) involve rate cuts and QE, it’s not as interesting(?)
The lack of action at Monday’s summit means markets may think Europe won’t change. However, the idea of Eurobonds has been floated again; let’s see what happens after the German election; and what Europe doing nothing as the US makes clear it won’t do anything, and Russia makes clear it will do something, does for the European economy and markets over time. In short, things are going to change. It’s just when and how.
To put things in perspective, the Telegraph reports Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 – 14:25
Source: https://freedombunker.com/2025/02/18/things-are-going-to-change-its-just-when-and-how/
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