Charts Signal: Time To Reload

The goal in life—and in markets—is simple: buy low, sell high.

In the firearms world, that rule applies just as much to ammunition. During the Covid panic between late 2020 and 2021, many buyers paid top dollar for 9mm and .223 rounds. 

Today, the market has swung in the opposite direction: Oversupply has pushed ammo prices back to early pandemic levels. However, the lingering question is: Will these low prices be sustained?

A geopolitical flare-up could send prices soaring, or manufacturers might scale back production, tightening supply and driving prices back up. Or trade war uncertainty on primers could spark a disruption.

55gr and 62gr .223 on tap this morning at the Milita Industrial Complex pic.twitter.com/hHU5ObT6z0

— Fenið• Ammunition (@FenixAmmunition) June 5, 2025

There are many questions… But one thing is sure: prices for America’s most common rounds are near or at their bottoms. 

Here are the most common ammunition calibers in the U.S., along with current pricing data from Texas-based Black Basin Outdoors, a leading online retailer specializing in ammo and firearm accessories:

9mm Luger (9x19mm Parabellum)

The 9mm Luger is the most widely used handgun cartridge in the U.S., favored by law enforcement, military, and civilian shooters for its balance of power, manageable recoil, and affordability.

223 Remington / 5.56x45mm

NATO These cartridges are standard for AR-15-style rifles, making them the most popular rifle rounds in the country. They’re used for home defense, hunting, and sport shooting

.22 Long Rifle (LR)

Known for its low cost and minimal recoil, the .22 LR is a favorite for target shooting, small game hunting, and training new shooters. It’s widely available and used in both rifles and pistols.

12 Gauge Shotgun Shells

The 12-gauge is the most common shotgun caliber, used extensively for hunting, sport shooting, and home defense due to its versatility and effectiveness

308 Winchester / 7.62x51mm NATO

Popular among hunters and long-range shooters, the .308 Winchester offers excellent accuracy and stopping power, making it a staple for big game hunting and precision shooting

Keep in mind that as trade tensions escalate in a fracturing world that is being thrown into a bi-polar state, the U.S. remains heavily dependent on imported primers and critical raw materials for ammunition production. Between November 2023 and October 2024, the U.S. imported 5,371 primer shipments from 754 foreign exporters—led by Vietnam, China, and Chile. That heavy exposure creates an alarming vulnerability: If a foreign adversary wanted to disrupt the U.S. ammo supply chain, targeting the global primer market would be a low-cost, high-impact move.