The China dilemma

A good many observers tell us that the People’s Republic of China is on its last legs. That a combination of demographics and the centralization and massive cult of personality of Xi are leading inevitably to a complete collapse. Some have gone so far as to predict mass starvation and depopulation. Of chaos beyond that of a hundred warlords fighting over the scraps.

China will collapse within years, maybe mere months. China’s demographics, its economy, the arrogance and egotism of its leadership, and world economic conditions all contribute to this. The various advocates of this view may disagree on how quickly and how total the collapse may be, but agree that China is in the toaster, just waiting to pop out.

Others, of course, see China as the current ultimate doomslaying threat to the States and Western Civilization. These include the military-industrial complex, screaming about the boogeyman which will gobble up the Pacific, an ocean covered with the debris and bodies of American and allied navies. Dropping bombs (or just rocks) from orbit. Joining with Russia to revive the worst fears of the half-century of the Cold War.

As recently stated by SecDef Hegseth, China is just months away from exploding. Not into chaos (Vision 1) but across the Western Pacific, gobbling up everything in sight. Starting with the American fleet and bases, then Taiwan, the Philippines, Indochina, and possibly even Korea and Japan. Attempting (and according to them, without trillions in spending by American taxpayers) to make the 21st Century the “Asian Century.” And worst case: hyperspeed and orbital bombardment of North America and at least Britain with nukes.

Still others, though, cite evidence to show that China has already undergone a massive depopulation, and is flat-out lying about having 1.4 billion people. (The claims are as few as 300 to 400 million.) And evidence that China is already breaking up internally.

And finally, there are those who claim that China is an essential part of the world (and American) economic system and we must be sure that they survive (and are placated) to ensure that we here in the States survive.

Whom do we believe?

Vision 1 is, among others, a view well-argued by Peter Ziehen, the geopolitical consultant. Jim Rickards of Paradigm agrees with this view. China is unstable and unable to deal with its issues. (Note that part of this has to do with losing its domination of world manufacturing from the last three decades. Oddly Ziehen has long predicted that, yet he is becoming more and more critical of Trump for doing this.)

Vision 2, pushed by the FedGov and the Military-Industrial Complex, is exactly the opposite. Right now, it appears that Congress is buying this view – and perhaps The Donald is, also. Some pushing this concept are convinced that it is the coming or threatened collapse that will cause China to embark on this massive aggression.

The likely outcome, of course, is somewhere in-between. But our own opinion, here at TPOL, is that the collapse of China is far more likely than expanding the Chinese (Han) Empire.

How deep and painful a collapse? Probably not so deep as to result in massive starvation, though the internal chaos of a dozen or a hundred warlords may see that happening some places in China. But the potential of something very much like the Soviet collapse – or even the breakup of Yugoslavia or the Ottoman Empire is definitely likely enough to worry about. Especially since the powers-that-be in North America and Europe will almost certainly try to force “benevolence” and even intervention militarily to restore the peace. (And thereby cause the same sort of bloodletting and destruction that we saw after World War I in Russia or the post-Tito Balkans. Or modern-day Syria, Yemen, or Gaza.

Of course, we are not predicting the future. It may be that a coup overthrowing Xi could cobble something together to stave off the worst. And preserve the Han empire for another few decades of gradual collapse. Or Xi could pull a Hitler-like gotterdamerung and ensure that the breakdown is rapid and complete that peace – a desert called peace, at least – is quickly established. With a few hundred million fewer Chinese.

Which brings up one last, interesting point: more and more people are coming to the conclusion that China, like the Soviets before it, have been lying about their population and resources. (We’ve discussed this before here on TPOL.) If indeed China only has 700 or 800 million people now instead of the 1.4 billion that Peking claims, the odds on a lot of things change. And as far as the rest of the world is concerned, for the better.

But for 2025 and 2026, the dilemma of Xi and whoever might replace him is complex: can he stave off collapse by going to war with the West: with Taiwan, the US, Japan, Korea, the Philipines and more? Or will starting that war lead to that very collapse? The very weaknesses of totalitarian, autocratic, and centrally-controlled society cannot be underestimated.

And neither can the stupidity and cupidity of Western politicians: in DC, Brussels, London or even Tokyo and Canberra.

READ MORE

Source: https://freedombunker.com/2025/06/02/the-china-dilemma/