UBS Warns On Slumping iPhone Demand As WWDC 2025 Kicks Off

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Update (1312ET): 

That was quick. 

• APPLE TURNS NEGATIVE DURING PRESENTATION AT DEVELOPER’S CONF.

• APPLE SAYS APPLE INTELLIGENCE MODELS ARE COMING FOR DEVELOPERS

And puke.

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Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference has kicked off, where the tech giant will roll out the usual updates to iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, and visionOS.

One year ago, CEO Tim Cook unveiled “Apple Intelligence.” Since then? A total flop… 

One year ago, the “experts” confused the post WWDC surge in AAPL stock with excitement over Apple AI (which was a completely disaster) when it was just a flood of stock buyback orders. Expect the same this year. https://t.co/X6ldA3fRfb

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 9, 2025

Tech blog Engadget offered insights on what to expect from today’s event:

One of the big things we expect Apple to announce later today, based on the rumors, is a new naming standard for its various platforms. The company might move to a year-based identifier instead of an arbitrary generation number. That means instead of iOS 19, iPadOS 19 and watchOS 12, we could see iOS 26, iPadOS 26 and watchOS 26 to indicate the year most people will be using the latest software.’

. . .

As has become the norm, there is already plenty of reporting and rumors out there on what we can expect to hear from Apple later today. Some of the more intriguing include a major update to iPadOS that would make it more Mac-like and better for productivity, multi-tasking and app window management. Some less functional but still noteworthy changes, according to the rumors, include a possible visual refresh and new naming method.

Engadget’s Nathan Ingraham noted, “Should we have an over/under bet on how many times we hear the words “Apple Intelligence” today?“

Will rainbows translate into more iPhone sales? 

On Sunday, UBS analyst David Vogt shared new survey data with clients based on responses from 7,500 smartphone users across the U.S., U.K., China, Germany, and Japan. The survey data painted a bleak picture of iPhone demand.

Key Survey Findings:

• U.S. and China Intent Drops: iPhone purchase intent in the U.S. dropped to 17%—the lowest in five years—while China fell from 22% to 16% year-over-year, hitting its weakest level in nearly a decade.

• Other Markets Mixed: The UK and Germany saw flat or slight declines, while Japan was the only country with a modest improvement (13%, up from 11%).

• Average iPhone Age Climbs: The average iPhone in use is now 22.9 months old, the highest ever recorded by UBS, indicating delayed upgrade cycles.

Vogt noted that Apple’s new GenAI suite, branded as Apple Intelligence, has failed to spark any meaningful upgrade cycle outside China.