Chinese Exports Hotter Than Expected On Surge In Transshipments To Evade Trump Tariffs

China’s exports rose faster than expected last month the latest customs “data” showed, ahead of next week’s expiration of a tariff truce with the US which threatens to reignite trade tensions between the world’s economic superpowers if it is not extended, although it now appears another 90 days extension is pretty much assured. 

Exports added 7.2% in July on a year earlier in US dollar terms, the fastest rate of growth since April, while imports added 4.1% the strongest reading in a year. The country’s trade surplus was $98.2bn last month, below $114.7bn in June due to the jump in imports. 

The recent strength in Chinese exports is almost entirely due to continued frontrunning of the tariff deadline (which incidentally is always TACOed 3 month forward), and has resulted in 4 of the past 5 months of Chinese exports printing above expectations.

The data released on Thursday by China’s customs administration came as Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs came into effect for US trading partners from India to Switzerland, pushing Washington’s levies to the highest level in a century.

The latest wave of US tariffs did not directly affect China, which has been locked in close negotiations with Washington for months over tariffs and trade flows of goods ranging from rare earths to semiconductors.

The sides had agreed to a 90-day truce that reduced tariffs from levels as high as 145% in April, as initial agreements raised hopes of a longer-term deal. That ceasefire, and associated reduced tariff levels, was set to expire on Tuesday but as this Bloomberg headline indicated, that is likely to be extended once again:

• *LUTNICK: US LIKELY TO EXTEND CHINA DEADLINE FOR ANOTHER 90 DAYS

Yet even with the fate of China tariffs still TBD, trade between the two countries has already been hit substantially, and the July figures showed China’s exports to the US declined 22% on a year earlier, after having previously sunk in May by the most since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

China’s exports to south-east Asia, which have by contrast continued to grow at double-digit rates in recent months, have drawn scrutiny over so-called “transshipment” of goods through third-party countries before reaching their final destination.

Indeed, for the clearest example of how China is bypassing US tariffs, look no further than Chinese exports to Vietnam – a regional transshipment hub – which then reships the Chinese products onward to the US. 

The surge in Chinese exports to countries that are tariffed less explains Trump’s latest tariff salvo which included a blanket 40% levy on transshipped goods, though it did not offer further detail on how those shipments would be defined.

“We think simple transshipment is less attractive now,” analysts at Citi wrote, pointing to “tighter US enforcement to prevent tariff evasion”. Yet one wouldn’t think that by looking at exports to Vietnam. 

China’s exports have been a crucial growth driver for policymakers in the world’s second-largest economy, given a four-year property sector slowdown that has weighed on consumer confidence. Authorities have targeted GDP growth of about 5% for 2025.

Trump’s administration in April introduced steep levies globally, but the measures had largely been paused to allow for bilateral negotiations with trading partners.

The president on Wednesday also pledged to introduce a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports, however once again with huge loopholes exempting companies that that invested in the US. The news sent foreign chipmakers soaring, while such domestic icons as Intel tumbled, after Trump unleashed a tirade on Truth Social demanding INTC CEO Lip-Bu Tan resign.