Home-Sellers Outnumber Home-Buyers By The Most In Over A Decade

Lance Lambert, co-founder and editor of ResiClub, posted on X, highlighting an ongoing and record-breaking trend in the housing market: sellers now outnumber buyers by the widest margin since Redfin data began well over a decade ago. The growing number of sellers is especially evident in the U.S. Southwest and U.S. Southeast, particularly in Texas and Florida, where the balance of power has shifted in favor of buyers. 

There are an estimated 1.92 million home sellers in the U.S. housing market and about 1.41 million homebuyers. In other words, there are 508,715 more home sellers than buyers, a massive mismatch not seen at any other point in Redfin data going back to 2013.

Lambert has come across an inflection point for the housing market: “The longer we’ve remained in this strained housing demand environment, the more the total number of U.S. active sellers is outmatching the total number of active homebuyers. Of course, there’s a WIDE variation across the country.” 

The longer we’ve remained in this strained housing demand environment, the more the total number of U.S. active sellers is outmatching the total number of active homebuyers.

Of course, there’s a WIDE variation across the country.

— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 4, 2025

Sellers outnumber buyers for several reasons:

• Affordability crisis.

• Borrowing costs remain elevated. 

• Economic uncertainty. 

Much of the supply is materializing in Sun Belt metro areas, such as Austin, Dallas, Tampa, and Nashville. Inversely, Northeast and Midwest metros like Chicago, Hartford, and Boston have seen tight supplies. 

Pockets in the Sun Belt—metros like Austin, Dallas, Tampa, Nashville—have softened much more than, say, many Northeast and Midwest metros like Chicago, Hartford, and Bostonhttps://t.co/7VPaI87f5l

— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 4, 2025

In case you’re curious, here’s Redfin’s methodology on determining how many sellers are on the market. 

pic.twitter.com/GZGj0Wokaq

— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 4, 2025

For more color on the rates market, Goldman analysts expect the interest rate-cutting cycle to begin next month:

Largely uneventful Fed meeting, Powell’s comments suggested that lowering rates soon could be reasonable but is not yet essential. Neither the statement nor the press conference provided any direct hints about the likelihood of a cut in September. In response to a question about the two-cut baseline in the June dots, Powell acknowledged but declined to endorse it. We continue to forecast three 25bp rate cuts this year in September, October, and December, followed by two more in 2026 to a terminal rate of 3–3.25%. Powell’s comments today suggest to us that a September cut is certainly still up for debate but not that labour market softening over the next two months is necessarily required, and we continue to see multiple paths to a cut.

Interest rate swaps … 

Related:

• Shocking Chart Exposes America’s “Civilizational Crisis”; A Nation In Freefall Without Immediate Course Correction

• It Will Take More Than Low Interest Rates To Make Houses Affordable

Another fun chart. Guess what’s next for homebuilder confidence… 

Will an interest rate cutting cycle be enough to cushion any landing?