Social Security Insolvency Projected 6 Months Sooner, Chief Actuary Says

The Social Security trust funds are projected to run out about six months earlier than previously estimated, according to a new analysis from the program’s chief actuary.

Letters sent on Aug. 5 to Sen. Ron Wyden (D‑Ore.) and Rep. Steven Horsford (D‑Nev.) say the combined Old‑Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) funds are now expected to be depleted in the first quarter of 2034, rather than the third quarter of that year as in the most recent trustees’ report.

The 2025 trustees’ report, released in June, had already moved up the combined depletion date by one year—from 2035 in the prior report to 2034—reflecting worsening demographics and legislative changes.

Under the new analysis carried out in response to requests from Wyden and Horsford, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act accelerates that timeline further by about six months.

As Tom Ozimek reports for The Epoch Times, the actuary’s letter attributes the earlier depletion to income‑tax provisions in the law, which make lower tax rates enacted in 2017 permanent and temporarily expand deductions for older Americans.

It estimates the changes will reduce revenue from taxing Social Security benefits and increase program costs by about $168.6 billion through 2034, worsening the program’s 75‑year actuarial deficit from 3.82 percent to 3.98 percent of taxable payroll.

When viewed separately, the OASI fund—which pays retirement and survivor benefits—is now forecast to run dry in the fourth quarter of 2032, roughly three months earlier than the previous estimate of the first quarter of 2033.

The DI fund, by contrast, remains solvent through the end of the 75-year forecast window. However, because the two funds are often assessed together to reflect total benefit obligations, the combined reserves are still expected to be exhausted by early 2034.

The actuary’s office said the analysis covers only the tax‑related provisions and will serve as a baseline for the 2026 trustees’ report, which will incorporate updated data and assumptions. In particular, the forthcoming trustees’ report will also include proposals intended to extend the solvency of Social Security.

Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, said the actuary’s findings confirm earlier warnings that recent Republican tax and spending policies are straining the program.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

The Trump administration has said its tax policy will stimulate economic growth and expand the tax base, mitigating the fiscal effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act without raising tax rates.

A White House Council of Economic Advisers paper from May stated that the permanent extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and business incentives in the bill would boost capital investment, wages, and job growth, strengthening government revenue streams over time.

Proposals to Shore Up the Program

Democrats have largely focused on raising payroll taxes for higher earners to close the funding gap. The Social Security tax currently applies to 6.2 percent of wages up to $176,100 in 2025, and income above that level is exempt. The wage base is adjusted annually for inflation by the Social Security Administration.

A proposal introduced in 2023 by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I‑Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D‑Mass.)—known as the Social Security Expansion Act—would apply the tax to earnings above $250,000 and boost benefits for some groups. Proponents say the measure would keep the program solvent through 2096, though conservative groups such as the Heritage Foundation say that it would amount to one of the largest tax increases in U.S. history and risk broader economic harm.

Republican plans have taken a different approach, focusing on changes to benefits and eligibility rather than new taxes. A blueprint released last spring by the Republican Study Committee—the largest group of conservatives in the House—called for gradually raising the retirement age, adjusting benefit formulas, and limiting certain spousal and dependent benefits for high‑income retirees.

Some analysts, such as those at Brookings, have suggested that any lasting fix will likely require a mix of tax increases and benefit adjustments, phased in gradually to give workers and retirees time to plan. They note that previous solvency deals, such as the 1983 reforms, combined measures from both parties to extend the program’s life for decades.