Waller Said To Emerges As Trump’s Fed Chair Favorite As Polymarket Odds Soar

For the past 6 months we have repeatedly told our readers that, contrary to media reports that it will be one of the “Two Kevins”, Trump would pick current governor Chris Waller as the next Fed chair, to wit:

Waller Puts In Bid For Next Fed Chair, Says Powell Should Cut “As Early As July” https://t.co/uiN1Umb49j

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 20, 2025

*TRUMP: I LOVE SCOTT, BUT HE WANTS TO STAY AT TREASURY

Waller it is

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 5, 2025

… and of course, our reco from June to trade Waller’s odds as next Fed chair on Polymarket where he was only added thanks to us, and whose odds were virtually nil back on June 20… when we said to buy. 

Future Fed Chair Waller has been added to Polymarket and his odds are amazing https://t.co/hm9mZ2BSNA pic.twitter.com/pOkqYddhEY

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 20, 2025

So fast forward to today when anyone who listened to our reco from late June just made a lot of money, as Waller’s odds are exploding this morning to record highs – and pushed him in the top position…

… following a Bloomberg report that – as we have been saying all along – Fed governor Christopher Waller “is emerging as a top candidate to serve as the central bank’s chair among President Donald Trump’s advisers as they look for a replacement for Jerome Powell.”

According to the report, Trump advisers “are impressed with Waller’s willingness to move on policy based on forecasting, rather than current data, and his deep knowledge of the Fed system as a whole.“

Of course, we told our readers precisely this months ago.

Shadow Fed Chair Waller? https://t.co/8NkawsDjp5

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 26, 2025

Waller, a career economist, reportedly attracted the attention of Trump’s economic advisers over the past year as the president talked about the economy while on the campaign trail.

Needless to say, Waller’s odds jumped last week when he was one of two Fed board members to vote against the central bank’s decision to hold its benchmark rate steady for a fifth consecutive time. He and his colleague Michelle Bowman, both Trump nominees, preferred a quarter-point reduction, citing growing signs of labor-market weakness. 

The report goes on to note that Waller has met with the president’s team about the role, but has yet to meet with Trump himself. Last month, Waller told Bloomberg Television that he hasn’t yet directly heard from the president about the Fed chair role.  

“If the president contacted me and said, ‘I want you to serve,’ I would do it,” he said in July. “But he has not contacted me.”

He will. 

What about the usual suspects? Well, they are still in the running…

Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official, and Kevin Hassett, currently Trump’s National Economic Council director, also remain in contention for the job, the people said, which will open up when Powell’s tenure as chair expires in May 2026. 

Hassett has met with Trump to discuss the chair job and has also impressed both the president and the team, Bloomberg News has reported. Warsh interviewed for the job in 2017 but was ultimately passed over for Powell. In November, he was also considered to serve as Treasury secretary.

“President Trump will continue to nominate the most competent and experienced individuals,” White House Spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. “Unless it comes from President Trump himself, however, any discussion about personnel decisions should be regarded as pure speculation.”

News of Waller’s fast-tracking through the ranks were viewed as clearly dovish by the market, and while 2025 rate cut odds remained flat, expectations for more 2026 rate cuts are now rising.