Majority Of Supreme Court Justices Convict Bolsonaro, Putting Brazil On Collision Course With Trump

Amid the looming threat of Trump’s ‘punishing’ Brazil, the country’s Supreme Court on Thursday is preparing to issue a conviction of former president Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly attempting a coup to remain in office during his 2022 election loss to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Backlash is expected from the Trump administration, as a majority of judges on a Brazil Supreme Court panel have now found Jair Bolsonaro guilty, with Justice Carmen Lucia becoming the third member of the five-judge panel to vote in favor of Bolsonaro’s conviction. This could result in unrest in the streets once the verdict is formally handed down.

The trial is set to formally conclude Friday, and a sentence handed down. If the sentence is harsh the White House could react fiercely after this summer a 50% overall tariff has been cumulatively imposed, impacting most Brazilian imports – including coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, beef, tobacco, seafood and rare earth minerals.

On Wednesday a lone dissenting vote was cast – Justice Luiz Fux voted to acquit Bolsonaro. “Fux’s position also emboldened conservative lawmakers pushing for a broad amnesty bill that would shield Bolsonaro,” Bloomberg writes. Such an outcome would certainly help Brazil-US relations at a delicate moment, though many Brazilians might balk at bowing down to Washington.

Fux has actually requested that the whole trial be annulled. ”While the lower house has signaled it may bring the measure to a vote, the Senate has shown little support, and the Supreme Court could still strike it down as unconstitutional,” Bloomberg observes further.

“Authorities have cast the case as a landmark moment for democracy in a nation that has experienced more than a dozen coup attempts in its history but never before prosecuted a top official for taking part in one,” adds the report.

Bolsonaro has already been barred from running in future elections, and a lengthy appeals process could push the proceedings closer to the 2026 presidential campaign – and all the while Bolsonaro has insisted he will be a candidate.

The Trump White House has chaffed at him being placed under house arrest, and has repeatedly publicly denounced the Lula government for a state ‘witch hunt’.

Meanwhile, new polling reported in Bloomberg finds that “Approval of Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s government rose to 33%, compared to 29% in July, according to Datafolha poll, published by Folha de S.Paulo.”