Polymarket Eyes $10 Billion Valuation As Prediction Market Preps US Comeback

Authored by Sam Bourgi via CoinTelegraph.com,

Polymarket prepares US return with CFTC relief, new funding and a valuation that could soar to $10B as prediction markets gain momentum…

Blockchain-powered prediction market Polymarket is reportedly preparing a US launch that could value the company as high as $10 billion, highlighting the surge of investor interest in prediction markets and crypto ventures.

Citing sources familiar with the conversation, Business Insider reported Friday that Polymarket is exploring re-entering the US while seeking new funding that could more than triple its June valuation of $1 billion. One investor valued the company at up to $10 billion, the report said.

As Cointelegraph reported, Polymarket was raising a $200 million round in June led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, an early backer of companies including OpenAI, Paxos and Palantir.

Polymarket, a decentralized platform that allows users to trade event outcomes without a centralized bookmaker, gained prominence during the 2024 US presidential election, where its markets correctly anticipated Donald Trump’s victory.

Polymarket activity skyrocketed during the US presidential election, based on monthly active traders. Source: Dune

The company was barred from serving US users in 2022 following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In July, however, it acquired Florida-based derivatives exchange QCX, which could pave the way for a regulated return to the US market.

In September, the CFTC issued a no-action letter to QCX, granting relief from certain federal reporting and recordkeeping requirements for event contracts. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said the decision effectively gives the platform “the green light to go live in the USA.”

Source: Shayne Coplan

Blockchain prediction markets gain steam

The move comes as rival platform Kalshi is reportedly nearing a $5 billion funding round, according to The Information. That follows a Paradigm-led raise in June, when the company secured $185 million at a $2 billion valuation.

Kalshi’s recent momentum stems partly from a 2024 court ruling that allowed it to offer political-event contracts — a ruling the CFTC appealed but voluntarily dropped in May of this year. The favorable rulings left intact Kalshi’s right to list political-event contracts under existing regulation.

Source: Factcheck1ntern

Kalshi ranks among the most active prediction markets alongside Polymarket, measured by trading volumes and monthly active users. Still, like Polymarket, its user base has declined since the election.

Market watchers say momentum is shifting, fueled by the start of the National Football League season. Market analyst Tarek Mansour noted this week that Kalshi processed $441 million in volume since kickoff, writing: “NFL Week 1 is equal to a US election.”