Sacre Bleu Monday

By Michael Every of Rabobank

As expected, the French government collapsed yesterday, leaving the country in political chaos just as it needs to deal with massive economic and national security challenges. President Macron has ruled out a snap election. (See

Le Figaro English recently noted: ‘“the geopolitical implications of dollar stablecoins, while most of the market seems to only focus on the ‘buy all the things’ aspect of them.

That said, yesterday’s BRICS virtual summit saw its members appear wary of exacerbating any trade wars with the US: although that geopolitical grouping criticised US policies, it steered clear of any direct attacks on President Trump. That’s following Chinese trade data yesterday that saw exports to the US slump 33% y-o-y but total exports still rise 4.4% – somebody is buying a whole lot more: shipments to the EU were up 10.4%, to ASEAN 22.5% and to Africa 26%. That’s either a lot of transshipment for the US to deal with or a lot of deindustrialisation everywhere else, with unhappy politicians to follow in short order.

Japan is also looking to find another new PM who can deal with a similarly fractious parliament and worrying geopolitical backdrop with public debt more than twice as high as France. That’s as China called Australia (and, by proxy, Japan?) a “geopolitical puppet” for holding a security meeting with the Japanese alongside the recent military parade in Beijing.

More importantly, it’s as reports have it that the looming update to the US National Defence Strategy will see a focus on the homeland and the Western Hemisphere (read: the Monroe Doctrine) rather than a pivot from Europe to Asia.

If you are in Asia, get ready to be told to spend 5% of GDP on defence like Europe has: how you then finance that is your business, but you will be financing the new US factories that build the weapons you will be buying to defend yourself with. That’s as Indonesian President Prabowo removed his finance minister after street protests, risking more turmoil for that G20 economy, while Thailand’s new PM and finance minister –with a fiscal deficit of nearly 6% of GDP– are seeing tourism groups call for cash coupons to be given to foreign visitors to spend in the hopes of boosting the economy. That’s how well things are going.

If you are working against US interests in Latin America, the tail risks are larger. Not only did the US recently blow up a Venezuelan drug-trafficking vessel in international waters, send a Naval flotilla there, and base 10 F-35 jets in Puerto Rico, but there are reports the White House is considering military strikes on narcotics facilities inside Venezuela. Which just happens to be a Russian, Chinese, and Iranian ally and very oil rich.

Not too far away, Argentina’s pro-US President Milei saw his party suffer a notable local election defeat in Buenos Aires, which unlike in Europe led to a real slump in both the peso and Argentinean bonds. In short, while DM might now look and act a lot more like EM, they can still get away with legacy DM FX and bond pricing… for now at least.

Indeed, while DM don’t really think about it, “because DM”, gold is at a fresh all-time high even as US yields decline. That’s as close to a “Down with this sort of thing” protest as you are going to get.

But back in the world of financial market commentary, Bloomberg, which neatly summarizes all its stories with AI, sees Shuli Ren recommend that due to AI rapidly replacing white collar jobs ahead, Tyler Durden Tue, 09/09/2025 – 09:45

READ MORE