Things Are Moving Fast All Over

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Do You Get The Points?

First, we had a surprise 28-point US plan for Ukraine; then Europe responded with a 27-point plan, a separate 24-point plan from the E3 (UK, France, Germany), and vague 6-points from EC President von der Leyen. Now we have a revised 19-point US-Ukraine plan, following bilateral discussions, which reportedly doesn’t favor Moscow and leaves the most contentious issues for direct Trump-Zelenskyy talks to be held imminently. Apparently, it proposes a ceasefire along current lines; a raised cap on the size of the Ukrainian army; restrictions on heavy weapons near the border; an Article 5-modelled US security guarantee; no automatic territorial concessions; no automatic veto on EU or NATO membership; and plans for reconstruction. The floated removal of sanctions on Russia and its return to the G8 may or may not be part of it, along with the release of its frozen assets which the US and Europe hold.

The key points are this: the US is in a hurry to get this done so it can focus elsewhere; and Europe continues to be left out of what it sees as its loop. That reflects its shrunken geopolitical status. Europe could already tell Ukraine it will provide it with unlimited funding and weaponry if the US won’t, but it isn’t; and if it is to rearm now, it can’t use frozen Russian assets to fund it.

As such, Europe’s geostrategic –so geoeconomic, so market– environment will continue to be shaped by others. As Euractiv puts it, ‘ according to one official.” We just published a report on the topic and the potential impact on energy markets: USTR Greer said the EU must slash levies on US exports before getting tariff relief. And Politico notes that “Ursula von der Leyen says African countries should benefit from resource extraction – but Brussels has yet to deliver on that promise.”

UK Chancellor Reeves reportedly hopes trade deals can save Britain’s budget as cheap Chinese wind turbines are set to flood British waters (says the Telegraph) but the UK and Indonesia agree a landmark £4bn deal to develop a maritime capability for Jakarta.

In the economy, besides constant concerns over “affordability”, which the Wall Street Journal says there is nothing we can do about, all is also change.

Trump just used an executive order to launch a moon-shot “

Meanwhile, India’s PM Modi also plans a reform blitz to try “to turbocharge” his economy. Things are not standing still.

That’s as the ECB just warned that stablecoins could siphon off euro zone bank deposits.

ᴍᴏᴅᴇʟꜱ ᴅɪᴇ ɪɴ ʀᴇɢɪᴍᴇ ꜱʜɪꜰᴛꜱ

— Hugh Hendry Acid Capitalist TV (@hendry_hugh) November 24, 2025

I agree; and would add that 1895 is arguably of more use to you as a map than 1995.