A Christmas Carol For The Markets, 2025 Edition

By Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank

As the year draws to a close, Ebenezer “Macro” Scrooge looks back on an eventful 2025. Sitting alone in his glass-walled office on Christmas Eve, the city below twinkling like a Bloomberg terminal in night mode. His screens glowed with charts: April Global Tariff Shock. And even if the US Supreme Court decides to annul those tariffs, Christmas tree had become a macroeconomic case study – 15% pricier thanks to US import tariffs. And the cake for this week’s party? Delayed because nutmeg and cinnamon were now a geopolitical pawn. The EU and China aren’t of much help either. dairy products from the bloc.  And thinking about getting stuff from the North to the South pole? Well, Reform the Bank. And France post-NATO summit defence roadmap and green-tech push, surprised you.”

Scrooge snorted. “Resilient? My stress index hit a record high.”

Before he could argue, the Ghost of Christmas Present appeared – a lively spirit juggling ornaments labelled “Interest Rates”;  It whisked him to a bustling Christmas market. Families laughed despite the higher prices of gifts and trees.

“See?” said the ghost. “People adapt. They value togetherness over tariffs. Even after war in the Middle East, after shutdowns and rare earth scares, they choose negotiations and peace at their tables. And let’s hope that is also a prospect for the Sudanese and Ukrainian people.”

Scrooge noticed a baker struggling with a half-finished cake. “Critical raw materials,” the ghost chuckled. “China’s export controls made nutmeg a luxury. But look – some kind of future can change!”

He awoke on Christmas morning, heart pounding like a trader’s after a Fed rate cut announcement. Throwing open the window, he saw delivery drones buzzing in with gifts – late, but arriving. The baker waved: the cake was done, thanks to a last-minute spice swap. Scrooge smiled for the first time in years. He cancelled his meeting on tariff hedging and joined his family, raising a toast:

“To resilience – in markets and in life! May our yield curves steepen with joy, not stress.”

And so, despite a year of shocks – tariffs, wars, shutdowns, and shortages – Christmas triumphed. Not through perfect policy or flawless forecasts, but through the enduring power of connection. Even Ebenezer Macro Scrooge learned that while currencies weaken and spreads tighten, the true value lies in being present.

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Dear reader, this was just a small selection of some of the most eye-catching developments we wrote about in 2025. With this last Global Daily, we thank you for your attention and all the feedback we have received. Our service resumes on 5 January. We look forward to do it all over again in 2026!

Happy Holidays!