Danish Intelligence Confirms The Russia-China Threat To Greenland

A 2025 Intelligence Assessment by the government of Denmark highlights the long term Russian and Chinese ‘threat’ in Arctic waters, at a moment Greenland officials have rejected the US assertion that the large resource-rich island and its waters are being gradually influenced and taken over by the Russia/China ‘menace’.

Trump has recently stated, ”We need that because if you take a look outside of Greenland right now, there are Russian destroyers, there are Chinese destroyers and, bigger, there are Russian submarines all over the place. We’re not gonna have Russia or China occupy Greenland, and that’s what they’re going to do if we don’t.”

Greenlanders meanwhile are by and large rejecting this, though perhaps Trump was using hyperbole in a “see Alaska from my house” Sarah Palin moment.

While Trump has already proven he often first sets his interventionist policy and agenda, and then goes looking for a justification in a post hoc fallacy kind of way (a longstanding tradition among pretty much all American presidents, sadly), the Danish intelligence report does seem to add general weight to Trump’s arguments.

For a sampling of official quotes from the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) – Intelligence Outlook 2025, complied by Conservative pundit Nick Solheim:

“In recent years, the United States has significantly increased its security policy focus on the Arctic, while Russia continues its military build-up, and China continues to develop its capacity to operate both submarines and surface vessels in the region.” (p. 30)

“Russia remains the strongest military power in the Arctic but sees itself as being challenged by the West. As a result, Russia will increasingly assert its interests through a more confrontational approach, both politically and militarily.” (p. 30)

“Most of Russia’s nuclear-armed submarines are stationed in the Arctic. They form a key component of Russia’s plan to deter the United States from attacking, providing Russia with the capability to launch a potential retaliatory nuclear strike.” (p. 31)

“The United States’ assessment of the scale and nature of future Chinese military activity in the Arctic is a key factor shaping its engagement in the region. Any Chinese military activity in the Arctic – particularly in proximity to US territory – would be regarded as a serious concern.” (p. 31)

“China aims to develop the capacity for independent military operations in the Arctic. Chinese activities are primarily concentrated in the waters north of the Bering Strait, extending towards the North Pole.” (p. 35)

“China’s long-term goal is to deploy missile submarines beneath the ice, thereby attaining the same nuclear second-strike capability as Russia and the United States.” (p. 36)

“Although Chinese companies have shown interest in investing in Greenland, this has so far not produced tangible results. Nevertheless, China’s long-term Arctic interests include Greenland, and it is expected to continue pursuing cooperation with Greenland, particularly in research but also in commercial ventures.” (p. 36)

“Despite the considerable geographical distance, Russia periodically deploys submarines, surface vessels and aircraft near both Greenland and the Faroe Islands, as well as throughout the waters between them.” (p. 38)

“In addition, Russia employs civilian vessels operating in the area to carry out tasks such as surveillance on behalf of the Russian state.” (p. 38)

“For Russia, the waters between Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands and the United Kingdom – the so-called GIUK Gap – form the main maritime gateway to and from the Arctic. Thus, the GIUK Gap is vital for Russia in the event of an armed conflict with NATO.” (p. 35)

“In such a conflict, Russia would seek to disrupt the supply lines between the United States and Europe by deploying attack submarines capable of transiting the GIUK Gap undetected.” (p. 35)

But it should be clear there’s also a convenient invoke the Moscow/Beijing bogeyman for when it suits your purpose kind of thing at play here…

Deterrence as usual- this is less a threat asessment than a review of the militarily un-alarming by commercially ominous status quo. You might as wll have quoted FA & The Economist.

— Russell Seitz (@RussellSeitz) January 13, 2026

BREAKING: The odds of the U.S. acquiring Greenland hit 25%, as the Trump admin floats offer valuing Greenland at over $10 million per resident. pic.twitter.com/EGgRQqrFww

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 14, 2026

The ‘fact checkers’ have been quick to push back, for example in this fresh Associated Press article: “Experts have repeatedly rebuffed Trump’s claims of Chinese and Russian military forces lurking off Greenland’s coastline. Experts say Russia instead operates in the Barents Sea, off the Scandinavian coast, and both China and Russia have a presence in the Bering Sea south of Alaska.”

It remains that the “Arctic” is a big, big place – and pretty much every great power with significant maritime capability patrols it as international waters. Whether Greenland is truly under threat or not from Russia and China is another matter.