John Mearsheimer On The Iran Playbook

According to a recent podcast appearance by geopolitical analyst and University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer, the Arab Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia (the Gulf Cooperation Council) are increasingly behind the scenes pushing pack against those who advocate for regime change in Iran. This marks a serious potential de-escalation in what is a decades-long (or even centuries long) Sunni-Shia rivalry and war for influence in the broader Middle East. In a sense, the pro-Sunni Gulf-NATO axis has already ‘won’ – Assad was overthrown in Syria, and Hezbollah’s leadership was decimated last year – now less a threat to Israel and also Gulf interests. 

Dr. Mearsheimer days ago appeared on on “Judging Freedom” talking with the Judge about a variety of topics, but most importantly on the evolving situation in Iran. As Mearsheimer describes, he laid out his thinking on:

1) what the US and Israel were trying to do in Iran — upend the regime and wreck the country;

2) how we planned to do it — with the usual playbook;

3) why the strategy failed;

4) why the US has not bombed Iran when it appeared a few days ago that an attack was imminent;

5) whether Israel planned to attack Iran with the US or the US planned to attack alone; and

6) what the strategic consequences are of what is happening in Iran.

On this last point, there is growing evidence that the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, are more and more coming to view the US-Israeli tag team – not Iran – as the greatest threat to stability in the Middle East.

If true, wrecking Iran and turning it into another Syria would just further embolden Israel and the US to pursue reckless policies in the region, which would not be good for the Gulf states.

Already, Israeli warplanes have attacked Syria literally hundreds of times since the new Jolani/Sharaa regime came to power. This was part of a divide and conquer Israeli strategy, and to ensure Damascus can never again be a threat.

While Israel is appearing to ‘tolerate’ the new Sunni hardline government, it remains clear that Syria has been more weakened than ever, with no more anti-air defenses to speak of (after Assad had the most feared Russian anti-air system in the region). Now only Iran is left standing.

Could the West and Israel now be ready to unleash the ‘Syria proxy war playbook’ on the Islamic Republic in the Persian heartland? Is that what the least two weeks have been about? Mearsheimer and Napolitano address this issue and more. Watch above.