The “Don-Roe Doctrine” Has Already Set The Tone For 2026

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Happy New Year! Brace yourselves, we’re in for a rough ride.

In our last Monthly Outlook for 2025, we looked ahead to this year. in US custody. He faces charges for “pushing drugs into the United States.”

It is the first time the US moves to oust a Latin American leader since Bush moved against Noriega in 1989. Coincidentally, the Panamanian leader was also wanted for drug trafficking, but the US had other geopolitical reasons to dethrone him. Drug trafficking charges may be Trump’s official reason for this weekend’s operation in Venezuela, as his voter base did not elect him on a platform of active foreign policy. Still, the move fits with a needs Greenland from the standpoint of national security.” And, Trump warned that Colombia defrost. Mexico strongly rejected the attack, and Chile and Colombia expressed their concerns.

The capture of Maduro also puts another strain on US relations with Russia and China, who both supported Venezuela. In fact, Maduro had met with Chinese envoys just hours before his capture.

Meanwhile, the response of US allies was divided as leaders weigh politics and international law. French President Macron chose the political route of commending Trump’s achievement: “Venezuelan people are rid of Maduro’s dictatorship and can only rejoice.” His German counterpart noted that the legal assessment is “complex.” But, above all, Merz called for a transition to a government that is legitimised by elections, warning against political instability.

Opinions vary how Venezuela may get there. Macron suggested that Maduro’s main political opponent –and presumed winner of the previous elections– could a fate worse than Maduro’s “if she doesn’t do what’s right.” For now, everything remains in flux.

It is equally unclear how Trump will ensure a smooth transition of power, or how he exactly plans to lead Venezuela in the interim. The US does not have a military presence or even an embassy, but it has blockaded the country for about a month now. So, Trump may have some economic pressure over any new leader. And he has warned that follow up strikes could still happen, if necessary.

If the US administration manages to impose its power over Venezuela, that could reshape the world. The country’s oil reserves could ensure low energy prices for US consumers and secure fuel for US shipping and military, whilst undercutting geopolitical rivals’ abilities to fund themselves with energy sales and/or disrupting flows to China. However, Venezuelan oil production is a fraction of what it was, and our energy strategists estimate that it would take at least Tyler Durden Mon, 01/05/2026 – 09:25

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