TSMC’s Bullish AI Outlook Prompts Goldman To Say ‘Anyone Hoping For A Pullback Will Get Disappointed’

Europe’s semiconductor stocks moved higher on Thursday, with ASML Holdings surging to a record high after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) reported a 35% jump in fourth-quarter profit and signaled plans to boost capital spending by nearly 40% this year.

TSMC, a supplier to tech giants including Nvidia and Apple, raised its 2026 capex guidance to $52 billion to $56 billion, up from a previous estimate of $40 billion. Management also indicated that the three-year investment plan will be significantly higher, reducing the likelihood of a near-term pullback in spending.

“Our business in the fourth quarter was supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies,” said Wendell Huang, Senior VP and CFO of TSMC. “Moving into first quarter 2026, we expect our business to be supported by continued strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies.”

It reported a net profit of $16 billion for the October-December quarter, a 35% surge from a year earlier, exceeding analysts’ average estimates.

“We expect our business to be supported by continuous strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies,” Huang said. He said spending would be “significantly higher” in the next three years.

An analyst asked TSMC chairman and CEO C. C. Wei about the risk that the AI investment cycle is a bubble. Wei replied, “I’m also very nervous about it, you bet … AI is real. Not only real, but it’s also starting to grow into our daily life.”

Earlier, Goldman analyst Sean Johnstone told clients, “Anyone hoping for a pullback is going to be disappointed.”

Johnstone continued:

SEMICAP/AI POSTIVE as TSMC has been seen as major bottleneck for AI given how cautious mgt have been and now its raised capex ABOVE the bulls expectations. There was lots of debate in on the name in esp. around capex its guided well above both sellside and buyside at $52-56bn and saying the 3 year will be significantly higher. For 2026 sellside was $45-46bn, Buyside $47-52bn hoping the 2026 initial guidance range would include a $50bn. Anyone hoping for a pullback is going to be disappointed.

Q4 beat on GM at 62.3% street just over 60%, and operating profit at 54% (Street 51%). Guides Q1 above: 1Q rev +4% q/q or +38% y/y (Q1 guide is top end of bulls plus its guided FY at 30% – bulls expected TSMC to guide to 25% and walk it up over the year. The 5 year CAGR of 25%); GM further expands q/q to 63-65% driven by higher UTR and cost efficiencies, OM 54-55%. Overseas fab expansion would be the dilute from 2h26 by 2-3ppt. Capex FY25 was$40.9bn…. Note VAT an underweight for many saw orders beat this morning and GIR expect to see MSD u/g to cons, real risk of a squeeze

MORE +VE PRESS:SK Hynix is speeding up new fab operations to meet surging DRAM memory chip demand, Reuters reports, citing CEO Sungsoo Ryu. OpenAI’s first AI chip, Titan, will launch by end-2026, media report. Co-developed with Broadcom, it will be made on TSMC’s 3nm mfg process. Titan II, the next-gen chip, will use TSMC’s A16 process. OpenAI has tapped Samsung’s 2nm Exynos chip for its AI earbuds, ‘Sweetpea’. Intel is reported evaluating price hike for its server CPU following AMD who raised CPU including Ryzen 9000 earlier more pressure on PC names

Software remained under pressure yesterday and today TSMC numbers likely to exacerbate the software vs. Semis vs. trade already -15% ytd. Plus sentiment not helped with Claude Cowork

In markets, the Taiwan Stock Exchange closed up 80 bps at 30,941. TSMC’s earnings provided a bullish start for European chip stocks, notably ASML, and US chip companies, which moved higher in premarket trading. TSM shares in New York are up 6%.

This is certainly not the earnings report AI bubble bears were hoping for, as Goldman analysts echoed one another, saying that anyone hoping for a pullback is unlikely to get it.