Uncharted Territory: US & Russia Now Have No Limits On Nuclear Weapons

On Thursday the world woke up entering uncharted territory as the US-Russia New START Nuclear Treaty has expired without renewal. The pact’s last active day was February 4.

While there’s yet hope that a comparable replacement could soon be forged between the globe’s largest nuclear-armed powers and rivals, there are no current intensive talks happening on this front which have a ‘legal’ status related to international arms control.

Russian state media on Thursday has issued confirmation the last remaining nuclear arms pact between Washington and Moscow has ceased. According to statements in TASS:

The final day of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) falls on February 4, 2026. The United States has not responded to a proposal made by Russian President Vladimir Putin in September 2025 to continue observing the treaty’s quantitative limits on warheads and their delivery systems for one more year after its expiration.

The document itself does not provide for another formal extension, as was done in 2021. As a result, beginning on February 5, if no reaction comes from Washington, the last bilateral agreement regulating US-Russia relations in the sphere of strategic stability will become history, Vedomosti writes.

However, Axios on Thursday has for the first time revealed secretive, behind-the-scene last ditch diplomatic efforts to reach at least a tentative understanding, writing that “the and Russia are closing in on a deal to continue to observe the expiring New START arms control treaty beyond its expiration on Thursday, three sources familiar with those talks tell Axios.”

Already, President Putin and Russian officials have expressed frustration that the Trump administration didn’t seize upon an earlier Kremlin offer to extend the treaty by one year while a longer agreement is worked out.

But a US official has told Axios, “We agreed with Russia to operate in good faith and to start a discussion about ways it could be updated.”

“Two of the sources cautioned that the draft plan still needed approval from both presidents,” the report continues. “An additional source confirmed that negotiations had been taking place over the past 24 hours in Abu Dhabi, but not that an agreement had been reached.”

For now, the sides have an informal understanding to observe New START’s terms for another six months. But there’s nothing stopping either side at this point from ramping up nuclear expansion.

Meanwhile, a Wednesday statement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio gives insight into why the White House has let New START expire: ”Obviously, the president’s been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile.” 

This has been a longtime complaint of Trump’s, which goes all the way back to his first administration, when similar complaints about the existent framework for arms control were issued.

He said much the same in a fresh Thursday Truth Social post…