French Municipal Elections Provide Early Test For Le Pen’s National Rally Ahead Of 2027 Presidential Race

Takeaways

• France held the first round of municipal elections on Sunday in nearly 35,000 municipalities, serving as an initial indicator of political momentum ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

• Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) is seeking to expand its limited local presence, with ambitions focused on southern cities such as Perpignan, Marseille, Nice and Toulon.

• Pre-vote polls suggested competitive races in key targets, but full first-round results and projections are emerging gradually after polls closed, with many larger cities expected to head to a March 22 runoff.

• Turnout at 17:00 CET was estimated at 48.9%, up from 2020 but below 2014 levels; final estimates around 56-58% at 20:00 CET.

French voters went to the polls Sunday in the first round of municipal elections, casting ballots for mayors and councilors in a vote widely viewed as an early gauge of support for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) and other parties ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.

The two-round system means most small municipalities will see winners decided Sunday if they secure over 50% of the vote, while larger cities, where no candidate typically reaches an absolute majority - advance to a March 22 runoff. Parties have until Tuesday evening to negotiate alliances, withdrawals or pacts that will shape final outcomes.

The RN, which leads national polls for 2027 (with Le Pen or Jordan Bardella as potential candidates, pending Le Pen’s ongoing EU funds embezzlement appeal), has historically struggled to secure mayoral seats despite strong national performances. The party currently holds only about a dozen cities, with Perpignan (population ~122,000) as its largest stronghold under incumbent Louis Aliot.

Pre-election polling and RN strategy highlighted southern France as a priority area for expansion:

• In Perpignan, Aliot was favored to secure re-election, potentially outright or with a strong first-round lead, based on surveys showing him well ahead of fragmented opposition.

• In Marseille (France’s second-largest city), RN candidate Franck Allisio polled closely with incumbent Socialist Mayor Benoît Payan (around 32-35% range in surveys), setting up a potential multi-way runoff if the left fragments (e.g., with France Unbowed’s Sébastien Delogu qualifying).

• In Nice (fifth-largest), RN ally Éric Ciotti (from his UDR group) held strong pre-vote polling positions against incumbent Christian Estrosi.

• In Toulon and surrounding areas, RN’s Laure Lavalette was seen as competitive in a region where the party has parliamentary dominance.

These targets reflect RN’s aim to build grassroots infrastructure - more councilors and mayors for voter mobilization – and test the fraying “Republican Front” (cross-party efforts to block the far right). A symbolic win in a major southern city would mark a breakthrough, though municipal dynamics (local issues like security, public services, drug trafficking and economy) differ from national ones.

On the left, divisions between Socialists and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed persist, while centrists and the center-right face challenges in places like Paris (Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire frontrunning amid Rachida Dati and others) and Le Havre (Édouard Philippe defending his seat).

Turnout figures showed modest engagement: ~19% at midday in some reports, rising to 48.9% at 17:00 CET nationwide (higher than 2020′s pandemic-affected 38.77% but down from 2014). Final estimates hovered around 56-58% at 20:00 CET.

No comprehensive first-round results or nationwide projections were available immediately after polls closed (between 18:00 and 20:00 CET depending on the area), as counting begins progressively. Early partial tallies from smaller communes may appear soon, but major-city suspense – and any RN progress – will likely clarify overnight or into Monday, with runoffs deciding many high-profile races.

Le Pen, meanwhile, has been courting old money - though there appears to be some friction. As the Straits Times reports: 

A new circle of advisers with elite pedigrees is asserting influence, adopting what some National Rally officials describe as a “know-it-all” style that grates on the old guard.

Courting high society risks alienating the base who fuelled the party’s rise and that has long been wary of financiers and high-powered networks, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The internal friction comes at a pivotal moment, with the party leading polls roughly a year before the next presidential election, and just as France heads into its two-round municipal vote on March 15 and March 22 – an early test of the party’s electability. 

As Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella navigate the treacherous path to 2027, the National Rally’s calculated pivot toward France’s corporate and old-money elite – through technocratic advisers and pro-business overtures – represents both its greatest opportunity and its most potent risk. While these bridges could deliver funding, credibility, and a veneer of governability that has long eluded the party, they threaten to erode the populist authenticity that propelled its rise among working-class and disaffected voters. With the municipal elections offering an early, localized litmus test of the RN’s mainstreaming efforts, the coming days and weeks will reveal whether Le Pen’s “de-demonization” strategy can reconcile these worlds - or whether the old guard’s warnings prove prescient, leaving the party close to power yet still unable to seize it