Global Energy Crisis Or Iranian Surrender In Five Weeks?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

The last time global energy markets witnessed a shock similar to what we might see this year was during the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. Tensions were escalating in the aftermath of the Yom Kippur War when the Arab Coalition launched a surprise attack against Israel. OPEC nations joined forces to cut off oil to Israeli allies including the US. This froze around 15% of oil exports to America, triggering market speculation, hording and price inflation.

The infection spread to Asian markets long dependent on the Middle East for energy resources. This slowed industrial capacity and many governments imposed rationing and price controls.

Images of long lines of cars at gas stations and people filling up extra containers remain burned into the collective memory of anyone who lived through that era. However, the real threat to the US was not supply shortages; rather, it was the prospect of a market cascade.

Stagflation coupled with supply chain vulnerabilities were exacerbated by public panic. Stock markets also plunged into recession territory in the expectation of an industrial slowdown. The embargo lasted only five months, but the damage was extensive.

Things have changed quite dramatically since the 1970s. The US is far less dependent on energy resources from the Middle East, though, any shocks to the global oil trade have the ability to ripple out and affect American markets. Furthermore, Arab oil producers are now largely allied with the US, which means there’s less risk of a prolonged shutdown due to conflict.

In the case of the Strait of Hormuz, any direct damage to America is minimal. Only 7% of all oil shipments to the US actually travel through the Hormuz, and, Venezuelan oil is helping to fill that gap. The greater danger is rooted in globalism and the interdependent trade system.

For example, US allies like Australia, India, Japan, and the Philippines are heavily exposed to the Hormuz shutdown. Australia is currently one month away from supply shortages and the country has little to no backup. The Philippines has already declared a state of emergency and established ration policies; they have perhaps 2 months of emergency supplies. Japan is currently tapping into strategic oil reserves and they are boosting coal fired power.

China, is facing significant exposure, with 15% of their oil supplies coming directly from Iranian wells and around 35% of their total oil supply traveling through the Hormuz. China has around 4 months of reserves before crisis hits them like a freight train.

Most Asian countries that are reliant on oil and natural gas passing through the Hormuz have around two months before they start to see public panic and long lines at gas stations similar to 1973.

Iran claims that they intend to let “non-hostile ships” pass the strait, but they’ve stopped multiple Chinese ships this week after this announcement was made. It is likely that war conditions will continue for at least another month, and, in the worst case scenario, the Hormuz could remain closed well beyond the cutoff date for many at-risk countries. The longer the war goes on, the greater the chance of a market cascade.

I’ve noticed that there are some bought-and-paid-for “prognosticators” out there adding their own propaganda spin to these events, including the notion that the west is on the verge of collapse because of the Hormuz closure. In reality, the east is far more economically exposed than the west is to this war. That said, there are risks to the US, and they are reliant on how long the conflict lingers.

Energy Crisis, Election Dangers And Global Economic Warfare

As I noted in October of 2024 in my article “The Atlantic Council Has Big Plans For A War Between The US And Iran”, there has been a concerted effort among globalists to lure Americans and Europeans into long term conflicts with Iran and with Russia. As I noted in 2024:

“The establishment media reports that Iran hacked the Trump campaign’s election strategies and gave them to the Harris camp. There are also rumors spread by US intelligence agencies that Iran was working to have Trump assassinated. Are these claims true? There’s little public evidence available to prove it.

Maybe Iran really wants to take Trump down. Or, maybe this is part of a plot to ensure that Trump backs a full blown war with Iran should he win the election. Trump has said repeatedly that he intends to end the war in Ukraine upon his return to the White House. This would ruin over a decade of planning by the Atlantic Council. But what if they can sink the US into a different conflict with the same potential for a world war? That’s what Iran is – Another linchpin…”

I would note that “world war” can take many forms. It could be a war using economic weapons rather than nukes. It could be a series of proxy wars that spiral and spread.

The Ukraine theater serves as a proxy war in which Russia indirectly engages with NATO and Russia is now forced to sustain its military posture for far longer than it expected at a much higher cost. Iran has the potential to become another Ukraine, but one in which the US is trapped into expending military and economic assets while Russia and China drag out the costs.

In my June 2025 article, “The Iran Trap: Everyone Wants Americans To Fight Their Wars For Them”, I predicted:

“Iran will receive ample weaponry and intel from Russian sources, prolonging the conflict….”

The Kremlin has essentially admitted that this is already happening. Iran has shown uncharacteristic precision with some missile strikes exactly because they have access to Russian satellite intel and targeting. The Russians could very well be running Iran’s strategic operations, for all we know. I also argued that:

“On the political front there will be a deep divide between pro-Israel conservatives and anti-war conservatives. Trump will lose a large percentage of his base if the US deploys troops. Americans might hate leftists enough that this won’t matter in 2026, but they’re not going to give Neo-Cons a free pass, either.”

In other words, one of the biggest disasters that could happen for the US as a result of this war is that ideologically deranged Democrats and leftists regain enough political leverage post-midterms to disrupt any practical reforms and eventually bring back the woke nightmare we witnessed under the Biden Administration. If this happens, mass violent unrest in America is inevitable. Not to mention, war with Russia in Ukraine will be back on the table.

For large swaths of Asia, the disaster will be immediately visceral, including economic implosion, rationing and probably civil unrest. And, thanks to globalism, economic crisis in Asia has the ability to spread into western economies.

The BRIC nations have lost much of their leverage over the US Dollar that they had 10 years ago (China’s dollar and treasury holdings have been cut in half and exports from China to the US have dropped significantly), but they can still engage in enough economic warfare through trade disruptions to wreak havoc on US markets.

As I mentioned in recent articles, any disruption to the Yen-Carry trade is perhaps the biggest threat to the US economy right now, and this could be triggered through high energy prices in Japan; not as an attack, but as a basic consequence of market interdependency. All of this depends on the true objectives behind US operations in Iran.

Is the goal an occupation and complete regime change? Well, this is clearly what the Neo-Cons and Israel want. That kind of project could take years to complete and it would require a maximum US ground commitment. However, if Trump intended to pursue an occupation I think he would have committed tens of thousands of troops on day one.

Is the goal to simply destroy the Iranian ability to project military power outside of their country, or take control of the Strait of Hormuz? Walking away is not an option at this stage (the Hormuz cannot be left in the hands of the Iranians without leverage against them). So, this would be the easiest objective to complete with minimal US ground operations, bringing us to our best case scenario…

The Key To Ending The Iran War In Five Weeks

We constantly hear about international exposure to the Hormuz shutdown, but the media rarely mentions that Iran is the MOST exposed economy of all. For now, Iranian oil ships continue to pass through the strait and these vessels are Iran’s economic lifeline. Strategic estimates suggest that without the steady passage of these oil tankers, the Iranian economy would completely collapse within five weeks.

In fact, there is already information leaking out from Iran which suggests that an economic crash is happening right now. This will accelerate the Islamic regime’s willingness to negotiate.

If they don’t, Trump’s strategy will be a ground invasion of Kharg Island along with several other Islands that Iran uses to help secure the Hormuz. Kharg Island handles approximately 96% of Iran’s crude oil exports, making it the single greatest weakness of the regime.

But what if Kharg represents too much risk? The American public abhors even minimal military casualties, which is why we are politically ill equipped to weather a long term war. There is another way, and it’s much safer…

Iranian cargo ships can be targeted for seizure by a US blockade of the Persian Gulf well away from the narrow waters of the Hormuz. The ships could be destroyed, but I suspect the Department of Defense will try to avoid oil spills and ecological disasters. Instead, the best option is to capture Iran’s tankers and then redirect the oil to countries in danger of shortages. Iran has the option of shutting off GPS tracking for their vessels (shadow fleet), but this would not help them maneuver past a comprehensive US blockade.

In other words, I argue that the US could turn the tables on Iran and use their reliance on the Hormuz against them. With Iran’s economy in shambles, they will no longer be able to purchase missiles or drones for resupply from Russia and China. They won’t be able to pay for logistic resources for their military and they won’t be able to contain public unrest.

The Iranians would be forced to negotiate and the war would be over quickly with minimal risk to US troops. It’s the only option I see for returning energy markets to normal operations within a couple months while preventing a global crisis. Trump should treat any calls for long term ground occupation with suspicion; there is no need for this kind of military commitment. The war can be decided quickly through economic means.