Regime Change Will Not Be Easy: Tehran’s Goal Is To Survive By Any Means Necessary
By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank
My Circus! My Monkeys!
Europe was hit with the first strike to its energy supply chain after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and had to start diversifying its inflows from elsewhere. Now that Middle Eastern LNG is losing reliability, Europe might have to get involved just to keep the lights on.
While the EU and UK would probably be more than happy to spectate from the proverbial “monitoring chair,” they may not have a choice. TTF prices reached highs of – €48.95/MWh yesterday—the highest since February of 2025- and are up more than 20% today.
QatarEnergy announced that it has ceased production of LNG and associated products due to the recent escalation. Our Energy Strategists, Florence Schmit and Joe DeLaura, note that we could see prices return to 2022 levels should Qatar be taken out of the LNG equation entirely (easily back to €100/MWh). Read more France24 reports that “France, Germany, UK ready to take ‘defensive action’ against Iran.” As the EU touts commitments to increase defense spending and build up its military capabilities, Rabobank Global Strategist Michael Every has mused, “why have all these war planes sitting on the tarmac not doing anything?”
A little farther south, the X that “neither the interests of the United States nor the cause of global peace are well served by this. I urge the United States not to get sucked in further. This is not your war.” But the GCC has made it clear that they don’t want it to be their war either. Threats to the economies of the Gulf are not just about energy—this also impacts their budding tourism and hospitality industries as few want to vacation in an active warzone. The UAE and Qatar have reportedly been lobbying allies to end this war as soon as possible.
Meanwhile, in a Tyler Durden Tue, 03/03/2026 – 10:30
Source: https://freedombunker.com/2026/03/03/regime-change-will-not-be-easy-tehrans-goal-is-to-survive-by-any-means-necessary/
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