40,000 U.S. Retail Stores Could Close By 2030
UBS consumer analyst Michael Lasser told clients that a further rise in e-commerce penetration, from about 22% today to as high as 27%, could force the closure of 40,000 U.S. retail stores by 2030.
The warning comes as more than 10,000 stores have closed since late 2023, and shows how the shift to e-commerce is pressuring brick-and-mortar retail footprints nationwide.
Lasser’s forecast is that e-commerce penetration rates in the U.S. will top 27% by the end of the decade, up from the current 22%.
Many of the projected closures will be across clothing, consumer electronics, home furnishings, office supplies, and sporting goods.
The advent of the internet and e-commerce has certainly put pressure on retail stores over the last two decades.
Also, the analysts point out the population winter that Elon Musk has warned about. The lack of a robust new consumer segment will put pressure on the consumer economy in the decades ahead.
However, stores will continue to play a central role in retail ecosystems.
Big-box retailers have accounted for much of the growth in retail footprint.
The forecasted loss of 40,000 retail stores by the end of the decade would have a meaningful impact on the labor market and commercial real estate. Also, this is yet more evidence that the death of mom-and-pop retailing will accelerate.
Professional subscribers can read the full U.S. Retail note at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.
Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 – 06:55
Source: https://freedombunker.com/2026/04/28/40000-u-s-retail-stores-could-close-by-2030/
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