Getting More Anxious

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

We have another potentially eventful weekend ahead of us. A three-week extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon may ease tensions between the US and Iran somewhat, as Trump wants to avoid that this conflict undermines peace talks with Iran. However, there are still no indications that a new round of talks will be held, as both sides continue to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has continued to shoot at commercial ships that tried to navigate the strait, and US President Trump posted that he had “ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat […] that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz,” after the IRGC reported that the Iranian navy has laid more mines in the strait. So, President Trump may have extended the ceasefire earlier this week, but it remains a relative one. A tanker laden with Iranian oil is reportedly attempting to latest note, “futures markets are still materially underpricing the real supply risk facing both crude oil and natural gas.”

On that same tune, the Bank of England ECB hike to June, but conviction remains relatively low amidst the fog of war.

An inflation shock seems unavoidable now, and the key question is the intensity and duration. In addition to the anecdotal evidence of ripple effects on various supply chains, data are now starting to flag the economic damage too. The Eurozone PMI data came in mixed yesterday, with the French manufacturing sector above expectations and German manufacturing more-or-less in line. However, these headline prints are overstating the resilience of the sector. Manufacturers reported a large inflow of orders, ahead of expected shortages and price increases. So, this appears to be an attempt at stockpiling before the impact of the war becomes more widespread.

By contrast, the Eurozone services PMI fell to 47.4. Survey respondents reported lower output. We would argue that this services survey better reflects the decline in consumer confidence and business optimism, and their willingness to spend.

The PMIs also indicated that cost pressures continue to build “considerably.” Input prices increased further, particularly in manufacturing. But services providers also noted that higher transportation costs are affecting their business. So far, the passthrough to output prices remains limited. Nonetheless, output prices increased at the fastest rate in three years. And, as margins get squeezed further, companies may be forced to passed on more of the cost pressures in the coming months.

Adding further global inflationary pressures, Chinese exporters have begun to raise their prices on “everything Tyler Durden Fri, 04/24/2026 – 10:25

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