Trump Disapproval Rate Hits Career-High – War And Rising Costs Take Toll

Though tempered by the prospect of additional GOP gerrymandering of House districts in the wake of a pivotal Supreme Court decision, Democrats’ hopes for a rout of Republicans in the approaching midterm elections are rising after a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found that President Trump’s disapproval rating is now the highest of either of his two terms in office. Trump’s decision to launch a war on Iran is taking a toll — voters are not only dismayed by his handling of Iran, but also dissatisfied with his work on the economy, which is itself being harmed by the war. 

In a survey of US adults taken in the last week of April, 62% said they disapprove of his general performance in the Oval Office.  A whopping 76% disapprove of his handling of the cost of living and 66% disapprove of what he’s done with Iran. A majority of Americans surveyed expressed disapproval of his handling of every issue covered by the survey.   

While 85% of Republicans approve of his performance, the share who strongly approve fell to 45% — that’s down 8% since September and is a new Trump low. Perhaps more importantly, his approval among Republican-leaning independents is also at a new low of 56%. Overall, just 25% of independents approve of his performance.

Trump also scored terribly on some personal attributes. For example, 71% said the descriptors “honest and trustworthy” are not applicable to Trump, while 67% said Trump does not “carefully consider important decisions.” Meanwhile, 59% said he lacks the “mental sharpness” required of his position.  

The poll provides a little insight into the upcoming midterm races. Today, Republicans have a slim, 3-seat margin of control of the House of Representatives. Asked if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican candidate if the House election were held today, 49% said they would for a Democrat, compared to 44% who would choose a Republican. At the same point in the 2022 midterms, that question yielded a 42-42 tie, with the GOP proceeding to win the House when votes were cast six months later, securing a 222 – 213 margin in seats (a 9-seat pickup for the Republicans).  As for intended turnout, 79% of registered Democrats say they are “absolutely certain” they’ll vote, compared to 72% of Republicans — a 7-point improvement on the GOP turnout expectation recorded in a February survey.  

Looking at the big picture, 67% of Americans said the country is moving in the wrong direction. Here, there’s a vast difference among parties: 94% of Democrats felt that way, compared to 25% of Republicans. As a general caveat, we’ll note that — since more and more Americans identify as independent — party results are growing less meaningful. A hefty 78% of independents say the country is heading south.  

Finally, the poll had some incidental insights for those looking ahead to the 2028 presidential race. While participants weren’t asked about that contest, they were asked to rate the job performance of various Trump administration officials, including two potential GOP contenders: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. They came out with similar approval ratings — 35% for Vance and 33% for Rubio — but Vance had a 48% disapproval rating, compared to 40% for Rubio. The remainder of respondents had no opinion.