After the Shock: Crime and Unemployment Parted Ways in the Pandemic Era

For years, public debate has leaned on a tidy formula: when unemployment rises, crime rises too. Suzuki Law’s research team tested that assumption against the most turbulent labor market in modern memory and found the relationship is far less predictable. Analyzing U.S. unemployment and crime statistics from 2019–2023, the study shows how the Covid era scrambled long-held expectations about how jobs, economics, and public safety interact.

Full report: Is Crime Linked to Unemployment?

The Covid Shock — Familiar Theory, Unfamiliar Outcomes

In 2019, U.S. unemployment sat at 3.67%. By April 2020, amid nationwide shutdowns, it rocketed to 14.8%, the highest since the Great Depression. Nevada finished 2020 with the worst state jobless rate at 13.5%.

Conventional wisdom would predict a parallel spike in crime. Instead, the data delivered a paradox. In Nevada, violent and property crime declined in 2020, even as homicides rose. Nationally the pattern echoed: homicides jumped nearly 30% in 2020—the sharpest one-year increase in FBI records—while property crime fell to its lowest level since 1990. Lockdowns reduced opportunities for burglaries and shoplifting even as social stressors and community disruptions drove a surge in lethal violence. Economic distress and crime did not move in lockstep.

Stabilization Without Symmetry

By 2023, unemployment largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, landing at 3.7%. Crime metrics, however, did not glide back in parallel:

• Violent crime decreased 3% in 2023, and homicides fell 12%.

• Motor vehicle thefts surged 13% between 2020 and 2023.

• Property crime rebounded in many states even as unemployment fell.

California illustrates the disconnect. Its unemployment dropped from 10.1% (2020) to 4.7% (2023), yet by 2023 the state ranked 6th in violent crime and entered the top 10 for property crime—lists it did not appear on in 2020.

Where Crime Concentrates

Violent crime remains clustered in certain states:

• 2020: Alaska (837.8 per 100k), New Mexico (778.2), Tennessee (672.7).

• 2023: New Mexico (749.3), Alaska (726.3), Tennessee (628.2).

For property crime in 2023, New Mexico and Washington led the nation, each exceeding 2,800 incidents per 100k residents. Washington underscores the complexity: unemployment fell from 8.5% (2020) to 4.2% (2023), yet violent crime rose 20% and property crime outpaced national averages.

Long Views: Decades of Divergence

Over the past decade, some states saw sharp violent-crime growth:

• South Dakota: +188% (2012–2022)

• Montana: +125%

• New Mexico: +120%

Others experienced dramatic drops since the 1990s:

• Florida: –78.1% (1991–2022)

• Illinois: –72.4%

• New Jersey: –68.0%

• California: –54.2%

What’s Driving Concern Now

Category-level shifts complicate the narrative. In 2023, California led the nation with 208,668 stolen vehicles, followed by Texas (115,013) and Florida (46,213). Burglaries were highest in New Mexico (604 per 100k), Washington (563), and Louisiana (497.8). These surges arrived even as overall violent crime eased—another strike against a neat unemployment-crime formula.

Bottom Line

Suzuki Law’s analysis finds no definitive nationwide causal link between unemployment and crime. Downturns don’t automatically increase property crime, and recoveries don’t automatically make streets safer. The pandemic years highlighted a web of drivers—public health shocks, policing and prosecution practices, community conditions, mobility patterns—that can overwhelm simple economic explanations. Policy responses should be tailored to crime type and local context, not anchored to a single macroeconomic indicator.