Study Reveals Disconnect Between Traffic Congestion and Pedestrian Safety

Urban planners and policymakers are being urged to reconsider assumptions about pedestrian safety following a comprehensive study by the Chaikin Trial Group. The research demonstrates that traffic congestion levels do not reliably predict pedestrian risk, with several low-congestion metros ranking among the most dangerous for fatalities.

The study’s methodology paired pedestrian fatality rates with congestion data from INRIX’s 2024 Global Traffic Scorecard. The resulting “Danger-Per-Congestion Index” revealed that cities such as Tampa, New Orleans, Phoenix, Austin, and San Antonio face high pedestrian risks despite relatively few traffic delays. Tampa, for example, recorded just 28 hours of congestion annually but posted one of the highest fatality rates in the country.

Conversely, cities with significant congestion but robust pedestrian infrastructure—Boston, New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia—ranked among the safest. Boston’s index was the lowest, reflecting how walkable design and slower traffic speeds can mitigate risks even in crowded environments. New York, despite 102 hours of congestion, demonstrated relatively low fatalities thanks to extensive pedestrian features and transit options.

Regional analysis underscores the disparity. Southern metros averaged nearly triple the danger index of Northeastern cities. Florida and Texas accounted for six of the top 15 most dangerous metros, while eight of the ten riskiest were located in the South. The study attributes this to development patterns emphasizing automobile use, with wide, fast-moving roads and limited pedestrian crossings. Northeastern cities, built before the dominance of cars, benefit from shorter blocks, slower speeds, and denser transit networks.

The findings also highlight systemic issues contributing to fatalities nationwide. In 2023, 52.8 percent of pedestrian deaths were linked to drivers failing to yield. Other causes included improper crossings, poor visibility, and sudden pedestrian movements. High-speed corridors without traffic-calming features were particularly hazardous.

For policymakers, the implications are significant. Efforts to improve pedestrian safety must go beyond managing congestion. Infrastructure investments—such as protected crossings, improved lighting, and traffic-calming measures—are essential. Enforcement of traffic laws, particularly yielding to pedestrians, also plays a critical role.

The Chaikin Trial Group’s research provides a data-driven framework for evaluating pedestrian risk. By linking fatality rates to congestion, the study exposes the limitations of relying on traffic volume as a proxy for safety. It demonstrates that design choices, not congestion levels, are the decisive factor in protecting pedestrians.

As pedestrian fatalities continue to rise—over 7,000 deaths were recorded in 2024—the urgency of addressing these issues grows. The study calls for a paradigm shift in urban planning, where walkability and safety are prioritized alongside traffic management. Cities that embrace this approach can reduce fatalities, improve quality of life, and create more sustainable urban environments.

For planners, advocates, and policymakers, the message is clear: congestion alone does not determine safety. Infrastructure design, enforcement, and visibility are the true determinants of pedestrian risk. The Chaikin Trial Group’s study offers a roadmap for rethinking urban safety strategies at a time when lives depend on it.