A Grim Reality: War Between China and Taiwan May Trigger Conflict on the Korean Peninsula in 2025

As tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait, the risk of war in the Indo-Pacific region is growing more palpable. Recent developments in China’s military, especially the fast-tracking of the Fujian (Type 003) aircraft carrier, combined with North Korea’s expanding nuclear capabilities, have created an alarming scenario. Military analysts are increasingly concerned that North Korea will seize the opportunity presented by a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan to launch its own attack on South Korea, plunging the entire region into chaos.

The implications of this are dire, with analysts warning of massive casualties, large-scale nuclear threats, and a two-front war that could overwhelm the U.S., Taiwan, and their allies. The RAND Corporation has estimated that 200,000 casualties could occur within the first hour of a North Korean artillery strike on Seoul, and North Korea’s vast network of secret tunnels could allow them to strike deep into South Korea.

China and North Korea’s Mutual Defense Treaty: A Binding Alliance

The 1951 Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty obligates both nations to come to each other’s aid if one is attacked. This treaty creates a significant risk that if China engages in conflict with Taiwan, and the U.S. responds militarily, North Korea will launch an assault on South Korea. The agreement between the two nations ensures that any conflict involving China will almost certainly escalate to include North Korea​

Foreign Military Studies Office

The Analysts: Forecasting North Korea’s Actions

Numerous military analysts and geopolitical experts have expressed concerns about North Korea’s likely involvement in any future China-Taiwan conflict. Their predictions paint a grim picture of how quickly the conflict could spiral into a two-front war.

1. Markus Garlauskas, former U.S. National Intelligence Officer for North Korea, argues that North Korea will almost certainly exploit a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan to settle its own grievances with South Korea. Garlauskas notes that North Korea sees the U.S. as a common enemy, and in the event of a distracted U.S. military, Kim Jong Un would likely strike to “preempt” a feared U.S. attack​

   Foreign Military Studies Office

2. Matthew Kroenig, a senior director at the Atlantic Council, has echoed similar concerns. He argues that North Korea would seize upon the opportunity presented by a China-Taiwan war to launch attacks on South Korea and further destabilize the region. According to Kroenig, the mutual defense treaty between China and North Koreaensures their cooperation in such a scenario​

   The Diplomat

3. Victor Cha, former Director for Asian Affairs at the U.S. National Security Council, has pointed out that Kim Jong Un is unlikely to sit idly by during a U.S.-China conflict. Cha argues that North Korea has long prepared for an opportunity to strike at South Korea while U.S. forces are engaged elsewhere. Cha believes North Korea’s special forces and tunnel network make it well-prepared to launch a devastating surprise attack​

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4. Cheong Wook-Sik, director of the Hankyoreh Peace Institute, argues that South Korea will inevitably be dragged into a China-Taiwan conflict. Cheong notes that South Korean airbases are positioned strategically to block China’s North Sea and East Sea Fleets, making them prime targets for both China and North Korea. Cheong emphasizes that North Korea’s doctrine is to strike first if its regime feels threatened​

   The Diplomat

These analysts agree that North Korea will almost certainly attack South Korea if China invades Taiwan. The combination of U.S. forces stationed in South Korea and the mutual defense treaty between China and North Koreamakes this scenario increasingly likely.

The Fast-Tracking of China’s Fujian Carrier

China’s Fujian (Type 003) aircraft carrier is showing signs of being fast-tracked toward operational readiness. Although recent images of the Fujian’s flight deck during trials appeared to show jets, it has been confirmed that these were mock-ups of future carrier-based aircraft, including models of the J-15 and the stealth J-35 fighters. These mock-ups were used for testing and simulation purposes, marking a crucial step toward preparing the carrier for full operational deployment​.

Taiwan News

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Despite this clarification, military analysts still expect the Fujian to achieve initial operational capability (IOC) as early as mid-2025. This timeline aligns with the May to July 2025 weather window, which is ideal for amphibious operations due to calm seas and a lower risk of typhoons, making it strategically advantageous for potential actions involving Taiwan​.

Taiwan News

Admiral Huang Shu-kuang of Taiwan has warned that China would need at least three carrier battle groups to successfully invade and blockade Taiwan. With the Fujian, combined with the Liaoning and Shandong, China would have the necessary naval power to execute this strategy​.

Taiwan News

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North Korea’s Expanding Nuclear Capabilities

North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is estimated to consist of 40 to 50 warheads, and intelligence reports suggest that Kim Jong Un’s regime has developed the capability to miniaturize nuclear warheads for delivery via short-range ballistic missiles and artillery shells​.

The Diplomat

This capability significantly increases the threat to South Korea, particularly Seoul, which lies within range of North Korean artillery and nuclear-armed missiles.

North Korea has also expanded its strategic weapons delivery systems, including underwater drones capable of carrying nuclear warheads. These drones could bypass South Korean missile defenses and deliver a devastating nuclear strike on coastal cities or military installations​.

The Diplomat

The development of these drones shows North Korea’s determination to diversify its nuclear delivery methods and enhance its strike capabilities.

The Secret Tunnels and Special Forces

One of North Korea’s most dangerous assets is its network of secret tunnels built under the DMZ. These tunnels allow North Korean forces to bypass South Korea’s defenses and deliver troops deep into South Korean territory​

The Diplomat

At least four major tunnels have been discovered, but intelligence estimates suggest there may be as many as 16 to 20 additional tunnels that remain undiscovered​.

The Diplomat

These tunnels are large enough to move entire brigades of troops in just a few hours, making them a critical part of North Korea’s war strategy.

North Korea’s 200,000 special forces are the largest such contingent in the world, trained for infiltration, sabotage, and unconventional warfare. These forces are expected to infiltrate South Korea through the tunnel network, striking at key military targets, airbases, and logistical hubs, crippling South Korea’s defenses in the early stages of a conflict​

The Diplomat

These tunnels, combined with special forces, would allow North Korea to launch a devastating surprise attack against South Korea.

North Korea Ramps Up Military Activities in 2024 and Nuclear Threats

In 2024, North Korea significantly escalated its military presence near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) by deploying up to 250 ballistic missiles, including short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) capable of striking Seoul and other key South Korean targets​.

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These missiles were positioned alongside an increase in long-range artillery, multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), and conventional forces. The SRBMs, some of which are potentially capable of carrying nuclear warheads, were moved closer to the DMZ, intensifying concerns about a preemptive strike on South Korea​

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In addition to the missile buildup, North Korea dramatically increased the number of missile launches in 2024. By the middle of the year, North Korea had conducted over 40 missile tests, compared to an already record-high 70 missile launches in 2022​.

The Diplomat

The Diplomat

This surge in missile activity is seen as part of Kim Jong Un’s strategy to bolster North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities in preparation for potential conflict. The increase in launches, which include tests of hypersonic missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), represents a significant escalation in North Korea’s show of force.

These developments come as North Korea also threatens to use nuclear weapons if provoked. In several recent statements, North Korean officials warned that any perceived threat from U.S.-South Korea military drills could lead to a nuclear response. Kim Jong Un has emphasized that his regime will not hesitate to use nuclear force if the country feels its security is endangered​

Foreign Military Studies Office . This rhetoric underscores the high-stakes nature of the situation, especially with North Korea’s nuclear and missile arsenal growing more sophisticated.

Moreover, North Korea’s deployment of nuclear-capable missiles closer to the DMZ enhances the potential for a devastating strike on Seoul, which lies just 35 miles away from the border. The RAND Corporation has warned that a combined missile and artillery barrage could cause up to 200,000 casualties within the first hour of an attack​.

The Diplomat

With North Korea’s nuclear threats now part of the equation, the potential consequences of a conflict would be even more catastrophic.

RAND Corporation’s Grim Estimate: The First Hour of War

The RAND Corporation has conducted several studies analyzing the consequences of a North Korean artillery strikeon Seoul. According to their estimates, 200,000 casualties could occur within the first hour of an attack. North Korea’s 5,700 long- and medium-range artillery pieces, positioned along the DMZ, are capable of striking Seoul, Incheon, and U.S. military bases across the region​

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These artillery units are hidden in Hardened Artillery Sites (HARTS)—mountain bunkers designed to conceal artillery pieces and allow them to fire, retreat, reload, and fire again. This makes them incredibly difficult to target and destroy, and North Korea’s use of nuclear-armed artillery shells could exacerbate the devastation​.

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The May 2025 Weather Window: China’s First Opportunity

The May to July 2025 weather window is critical for China’s Taiwan invasion plans. This period offers relatively calm seas and lower risks of typhoons, making it the ideal time for China to launch an amphibious assault​.

The Diplomat

If China delays beyond July, the next opportunity would be in November, creating a narrow timeframe for launching a successful invasion​.

The Diplomat

Given the rapid progress of China’s Fujian carrier, the May 2025 window is seen by analysts as the first viable opportunity for China to invade Taiwan, blockading the island and preventing international reinforcements​.

The Diplomat

Warnings from U.S. and Taiwanese Military Leaders: 2025 as a Flashpoint

In early 2023, a leaked memo from U.S. Air Force General Mike Minihan caused alarm, as he stated that his “gut” feeling was that the U.S. would be at war with China by 2025. Minihan’s prediction was based on his assessment that China‘s leadership, including Xi Jinping, would be aligned and ready to act within this timeframe. His memo highlighted the increasing military preparations by China and urged the U.S. military to be ready for imminent conflict .

Similarly, Chiu Kuo-cheng, Taiwan’s Defense Minister, echoed these concerns, warning that China would be fully prepared for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025. Chiu noted that China’s military is rapidly enhancing its capabilities, and by 2025, it would have minimized the cost and attrition of launching an invasion​.

The Diplomat

Both leaders point to 2025 as the critical year in which a conflict over Taiwan is most likely to occur.

Recent Tensions on the Korean Peninsula: Presidential Warning and Military Display

In a recent address, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol issued a stark warning to North Korea, stating that any attempt by the North to use nuclear weapons would lead to the regime’s complete destruction. He declared, “If North Korea chooses to use nuclear weapons, their regime will cease to exist. We will respond swiftly and decisively.” This strong stance highlights South Korea’s commitment to national defense in the face of escalating threats from the North.

In addition to his bold statement, South Korea also showcased some of its most advanced military capabilities during a recent public display of strength. Notable among these is the Hyunmoo-5 missile, a key component of the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) strategy. The Hyunmoo-5 is capable of carrying a warhead weighing between 8 to 9 tons, designed to target and destroy underground bunkers, which are critical to North Korea’s military infrastructure. This missile serves as a powerful deterrent, signaling South Korea’s preparedness to neutralize any threats posed by the North’s nuclear arsenal.

The combination of diplomatic warnings and military preparedness demonstrates South Korea’s multifaceted approach to ensuring regional security and sending a clear message to Pyongyang that nuclear aggression will have catastrophic consequences for the regime.

The Role of Reverse Speech in Predicting Conflict: Insights from David Oates

In addition to conventional geopolitical analysis, I’ve explored the method of reverse speech analysis, a technique pioneered by David Oates. Oates suggests that hidden messages, or “reversals,” are embedded in everyday speech and can reveal subconscious thoughts, truths, or even potential future predictions when speech is played backward.

What is Reverse Speech? According to Oates, the subconscious mind embeds messages in speech patterns that can be revealed in reverse. These reversals often reflect hidden intentions or warnings and, in some cases, may predict future events. Some see reverse speech as a kind of lie detector, while others view it as a way to access deeper truths that the conscious mind may not acknowledge.

Matt’s Reversals: Early Warnings of Conflict Before conducting my own reverse speech analysis, I analyzed reversals from Matt, a former friend who still lives in Paju, South Korea—just 7 miles from the DMZ. These reversals provided alarming potential warnings of conflict:

• R1 (Matt): War is come, the earth.

  • This was the first reversal from Matt, which seems to indicate that war is inevitable or approaching, with the phrase “the earth” suggesting a global conflict or a major regional event.

• R2 (Matt): Warzone.

  • This reversal followed shortly after and pointed to the possibility that Paju, where both Matt and I live, could literally become a warzone, given its proximity to North Korea and its strategic importance in any potential conflict.

Shortly after these reversals, Matt stopped communicating with me. However, the warnings left a deep impression, prompting me to perform my own reverse speech analysis a couple of weeks later.

My Reversals: Further Confirmation After hearing Matt’s warnings and feeling the need for more clarity, I conducted my own reverse speech analysis. These reversals seemed to confirm the same alarming possibility of conflict in the region:

• F1: Heavenly Father, I need to know, do you see an actual war here on the Korean peninsula next year?
  R1: We see

  • This reversal provided an immediate sense of validation, implying that war or conflict was indeed perceived as a real possibility.

• F2: Heavenly Father, I need to know, do you see an actual war here on the Korean peninsula next year?
  R2: Hurry. Scan. Listening.

  • The urgency in this reversal implies the need to be alert and vigilant, signaling a potential looming event.

• F3: So I need to know something, my friend Matthew had a reversal that said warzone.
  R3: Must run, that he knows.

  • This reversal suggests that Matt’s warning was accurate, and it adds a further sense of urgency to the situation, implying that Matt was right to be concerned.

• F4: Once China attacks Taiwan, will there be a war breaking out here on the Korean Peninsula, so which would be next year maybe May June?
  R4: Scan me. Luke, show us.

  • This reversal implies that there is more to uncover, potentially linking the conflict between China and Taiwan to a subsequent war on the Korean Peninsula.

• F1 (Tape after Matt’s Reversals): A warning that we’re gonna see a war here probably next year.
  R1: Hurry. Your wasten to go.

  • This final reversal implies a growing urgency and suggests that time may be running out before the potential conflict begins.

Reverse Speech and the Warnings of Conflict in Korea The combination of Matt’s reversals and my own reverse speech analysis reveals a growing sense of foreboding around the possibility of conflict on the Korean Peninsula. With North Korea’s missile tests, their military buildup near the DMZ, and tensions rising across the region, these subconscious warnings through reverse speech feel more like direct forewarnings than mere coincidence. The proximity of Paju to the DMZ and its strategic importance make it a likely target, reinforcing the notion of a potential warzone in the near future.

Conclusion: The Growing Likelihood of a Two-Front War

With China’s Fujian aircraft carrier fast-tracked toward operational readiness, and North Korea dramatically expanding its nuclear capabilities and military presence near the DMZ, the world faces the very real prospect of a two-front war in the Indo-Pacific. China is poised to launch an invasion of Taiwan as early as May 2025, during the optimal weather window​.

The Diplomat

The Diplomat

The rapid advancement of the Fujian carrier, coupled with China’s need for at least three carrier battle groups to successfully blockade and invade Taiwan, suggests that China is aligning its military for a full-scale invasion​

Foreign Military Studies Office

Simultaneously, North Korea is ramping up its military activities in 2024, deploying up to 250 ballistic missiles closer to the DMZ and conducting over 40 missile tests by mid-year​.

The Diplomat

The Diplomat

These tests, including nuclear-capable missiles, represent a significant escalation in North Korea’s readiness to strike. Kim Jong Un’s regime has also issued explicit threats to use nuclear weapons if provoked by U.S.-South Korea military drills, further heightening the risk​.

The Diplomat

The potential for North Korea to capitalize on a U.S.-China conflict by launching its own preemptive strike on South Korea is growing, as analysts warn of a combined artillery and missile barrage that could result in up to 200,000 casualties in the first hour​.

Foreign Military Studies Office

The Diplomat

The discovery of secret tunnels, underground facilities, and special forces ready to infiltrate South Korea adds another layer of complexity to this looming threat​.

The Diplomat

As China and North Korea coordinate their military postures, the risks of a two-front war in the Indo-Pacific are rising exponentially. The international community must take steps to prevent this scenario by increasing diplomatic efforts and preparing for simultaneous conflicts in Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula. Failure to do so could lead to a catastrophic war with consequences not only for the region but for the entire world.