Widespread Rationing And Global Energy Shortages Are Baked In No Matter When The War Ends Now

Michael Snyder is the publisher of , The American Dream Blog and The Truth

It is difficult to believe the pace at which global events are now moving. Apocalyptic threats are being thrown around recklessly and severe damage is being done to the global economic system every single day. A lot of people still seem to think that economic conditions will snap back to normal once the war ends, and that is because they don’t understand the level of destruction that has already taken place. Even if the war ends tomorrow and commercial traffic starts flowing freely through the Strait of Hormuz once again, the world won’t be getting nearly as much energy from the Middle East because dozens of oil and natural gas facilities have either been damaged or destroyed. That means that widespread rationing and global energy shortages are baked in no matter what happens next.

According to the executive director of the IEA, 75 energy sites in the Persian Gulf region have been attacked, and approximately a third of those sites have experienced severe damage…

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol was interviewed by the French newspaper Le Figaro earlier on Tuesday and warned that the Gulf energy shock “is more severe than those of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined” because it is affecting oil, gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and global trade all at once.

Birol said in the interview that more than 75 energy sites across the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third severely damaged, suggesting tens of billions of dollars in repairs and a prolonged disruption of some energy flows, further tightening global supplies and compounding the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.

It is going to take years to rebuild the damage that has already been done by this war.

So what will things look like if this war stretches on for many more months?

Tankers that traveled through the Strait of Hormuz before the war began have still been arriving at their destinations.

But this month that is going to stop happening, and Birol is warning that we are entering a “black April”…

These countries are producing just over half of pre-war levels. As for natural gas, exports have stopped entirely. March was already difficult, but April will be worse. If the Strait remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined products as in March. We are entering a “black April.” In the Northern Hemisphere, April usually marks spring—but now it may feel like the beginning of winter.

Even in a wildly optimistic scenario in which the war ends immediately, conditions will continue to deteriorate for quite some time to come.

Right now, Asia is being hit harder than anywhere else, because they are the most dependent on Middle East energy…

In South Korea, the president urged citizens to take shorter showers to save energy. Butter chicken has disappeared from some restaurant menus in India because it needs to simmer for a long time, which is a challenge when there’s a shortage of cooking gas. In the Philippines, the government asked officials to reduce electricity usage by taking the stairs instead of elevators.

We haven’t seen anything like this in decades.

Bangladesh is already experiencing widespread fuel shortages, and we are witnessing fights, robberies and panic-buying at gas stations all over the country…

In Bangladesh, the fuel shortages and panic have resulted in a spike in robberies, as people raid gas stations and fuel trucks in order to stockpile supplies.

Mohammad Najmul Haque, president of the Bangladesh Petrol Pump Owners Association, told the Washington Post that attacks are reported every day across the roughly 3,000 fuel stations in the country. The appearance of huge lines of people panic-buying fuel has contributed to a cycle of fear, leading others to do the same. Some gas station managers have been beaten—or even killed—Haque and Bangladeshi officials reported, over the fuel shortages.

Things will soon get even worse in nations all over Asia because the tankers are going to stop arriving this month.

Of course Europe is going to experience a tremendous amount of pain too.

Already, approximately 18 percent of all gas stations in France are “facing fuel supply shortages”…

Around 18% of French petrol stations are currently ​facing fuel supply shortages, the government said on Tuesday, while rising prices at the pump prompted some drivers in western France to block a road in a sign of rumbling discontent.

As the US-Israeli-led war ​on Iran ‌enters its sixth week, a supply crunch on oil deliveries has ⁠led to a surge in crude and fuel prices in many parts of the world.

Here in the United States, we don’t have to worry about any gasoline shortages at this stage.

But in many areas of the nation gasoline sure is getting quite expensive…

For Connie Lear, driving even her hybrid car is a luxury she can rarely afford.

Lear lives in the rural town of June Lake, California, a picturesque community of 300 people near Yosemite National Park and the Nevada state line.

June Lake is part of Mono County, which has the highest average gas price in the United States.

“My husband and I were watching the news this morning, and it came on about $4 gas and I said, ‘Well, where are you? Ours is $7.50!’” she said, citing the price at the only gas station in her town. The Mono County average was $6.72 as of Monday, according to AAA.

What are people going to do if the price of gasoline hits 10 dollars a gallon?

Of course if this war persists we could eventually be dealing with shortages too.

In fact, one industry insider is telling us that is exactly what is going to happen if “we continue on the path we are on now”…

“The longer this goes on, the scarier it is. Today we might not have a shortfall, but eventually we will,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

“If we continue on the path we are on now, we will run out of fuel,” he warned.

It appears that supplies of jet fuel are even tighter.

Thousands of flights are being canceled all over the world, and four airports in Italy just started “imposing restrictions on refueling due to a shortage of jet fuel”…

Europe’s airports have begun imposing restrictions on refueling due to a shortage of jet fuel, and airlines have preemptively canceled flights.

In Italy, four airports in Bologna, Milan, Treviso and Venice placed some restrictions on jet fuel through Thursday, according to an official notice, which says that “due to limited fuel availability from Air BP Italia, refueling services for operators contractually linked to Air BP Italia may be subject to restrictions.”

As I stated yesterday, if you need to fly somewhere you should do it as soon as possible.

Supplies of jet fuel are only going to get tighter from here.

The same thing can be said about petrochemicals.

I wish that this was not true, but without sufficient supplies of petrochemicals the global economy will not be able to function.

So the fact that major petrochemical facilities in the Middle East are being destroyed should deeply alarm all of us.

In Iran, two facilities that account for over 85 percent of Iranian petrochemical exports have been destroyed…

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed the operation, stating that the strike on Assaluyeh marks the second major petrochemical complex targeted by Israel in Iran. He said that the two facilities together account for more than 85 percent of Iran’s petrochemical exports and are now no longer operational following the attacks.

Iranian media, including Fars News Agency and Mehr News Agency, reported multiple explosions in the South Pars Special Economic Energy Zone in Assaluyeh following the strikes. The reports indicated that the operation involved U.S. and Israeli fighter jets and that several key installations were hit, including the Jam and Damavand petrochemical plants.

In response, the Iranians hit the fourth biggest petrochemical manufacturer on the entire planet…

Iranian ballistic missiles struck Al-Jubail Industrial City, Saudi Arabia

The target was the Middle East’s largest petrochemical company, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), the fourth largest petrochemical manufacturer in the world after DuPont, BASF and Sinopec

If you do not understand how things are made, you may not think that this is that big of a deal.

But the truth is that almost everything that you buy either contains petrochemicals or is wrapped in packaging that is made from petrochemicals.

Goldman Sachs is warning that the petrochemical supply shock is “transmitting faster and at a greater magnitude than we had anticipated”…

Goldman analysts, led by Georgina Fraser, warned clients on Monday that the petrochemical shock is worsening across Asia, with textile and packaging plants emerging as the first major downstream casualties.

“The supply shock is transmitting faster and at a greater magnitude than we had anticipated,” Fraser emphasized in the note.

She said the supply shock is moving beyond higher energy prices into production cuts, margin compression, and early demand destruction, adding that “signals are materializing fastest, with textiles and packaging among the first downstream sectors affected.”

This is not a hypothetical scenario that may or may not happen someday.

This is an unprecedented global nightmare that is happening right now.

If you are a regular reader, you already know that I am extremely concerned about the worldwide shortage of fertilizer that has now erupted…

About a third of all fertilizer shipped globally goes through the Strait of Hormuz because Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran are big global producers. Some plants in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan have stopped fertilizer production entirely because of a shortage of natural gas.

We can’t get the fertilizer that is trapped in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.

And we can’t get fertilizer plants all over the globe the natural gas from the Middle East that they need to operate.

Spring is planting season all over the northern hemisphere, and if nitrogen fertilizer is not applied within a certain window of time it won’t work.

Global food production is going to be way down in 2026.

The number of people facing acute hunger around the world was already at a record high before the war started, and now we are facing a scenario in which we could see widespread famine in many areas of the planet.

Even if the war ends tomorrow, it is going to take many years for the global economy to recover.

So what kind of crisis are we talking about if this war keeps raging for a long time to come?

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com.  He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”.  When you purchase any of Michael’s books you help to support the work that he is doing.  You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter.  Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites.  These are such troubled times, and people need hope.  John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”  If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.

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