As much for my own future reference as anything, here is the list of nonsense in Labour’s energy plan. Since they intend to deliver the bulk of it by 2030, DV we shall be able to tick off the items as they do not come to pass.
> “By 2030, the UK will be the first major country in the world to run on 100 per cent clean and cheap power“. Can’t be done. Not clear anyone really thinks it can be, incidentally, even though Miliband pretends to. Not even the ’100% clean’ bit is possible, since (as is admitted elsewhere in the manifesto) gas will continue to be needed – so by inference, they really are depending on the carbon capture & storage they also commit to – another very long shot indeed; assumption upon assumption). As for “cheap” …
> “Cut energy bills for good … cheap power for all … not just in the short term, but for good … Labour’s plan for a cheaper, zero carbon electricity system by 2030 will lower bills because renewables are far cheaper than gas. Last summer the price of gas was nine times higher than that of renewables and it remains significantly higher. Based on gas futures price projections, our mission has been estimated as saving UK households £93 billion over the rest of this decade … take £1,400 off the annual household bill.“ Outright rubbish from beginning to end. (The consultancy that crunched the numbers for them – 18 months ago! – has quietly disowned them.) Most renewables are more expensive than gas, some of them much more. And all the other system costs arising from use of renewables are then piled on top (see ‘infrastructure’ below, and a host of other things). The period of “gas nine times higher” was the height of the Putin spike; it was only the spot price; and it lasted for all of a couple of days.
> “By 2030 … quadruple offshore wind with an ambition of 55 GW by 2030 / More than triple solar power to 50 GW / More than double our onshore wind capacity to 35 GW“. The only question is how far short of this ‘ambition’ they will fall. Incidentally, with knowledge of the German practice of building renewables (and getting paid) but not connecting them to the grid, we’d better hold them to a definition of ‘GW’ that means, not just capacity but ‘connected and functioning capacity’.
> “Double the government’s target on green hydrogen, with 10 GW of production“. An interesting one, this. What, pray, will be the load factor on this 10 GW of capacity? Very, very low, I’d guess. And why would anyone build that? Unless, of course, it’ll be paid for (via subsidy) irrespective of LF – which I suppose we can’t rule out.
> “Unleash marine and tidal power“. Sounds exciting! No details, however, so hard to comment further, save to say that the extensive track record of tidal power experimentation is very unencouraging indeed.
> “Four times as much grid infrastructure to be built in the next seven years as has been built in the last 30 … We are confident the transmission operators can do it.“ Really? What in the recent history of UK civil engineering leads to this conclusion? Oh yeah, the A14 upgrade came in on budget and under schedule. Anything else we can point to? HS2? Hinkley Point?
> “De-link the price of renewables from gas, to ensure their low prices are passed on to households and businesses“. There are some potential subtleties here, but I doubt this was written by someone who actually understands how markets work. (Incidentally, the same is true about some rather convoluted stuff they’ve got on local community energy schemes, but space does not permit.)
> “Mandating UK-regulated financial institutions – including banks, asset managers, pension funds, and insurers – and FTSE 100 companies to develop and implement credible transition plans that align with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement across their portfolios“. Too late! We’ve already passed the 1.5 point of no return. Even more seriously: what the Hell does this ‘mandating’ mean? This could spell Big Trouble.
In fact, all of it could! Finally …
> “Our plan will create 650,000 jobs across the country by 2030“. Some would say: cost 650,000 jobs, more like! Well, job-creation schemes are job-creation schemes. If even half of the above plans were to be embarked upon seriously, it probably would require hundreds of thousands of new jobs. But where ya gonna find the Brits to fill them, eh?
So: a watching brief on all this guff. Five or six years of popcorn is a lot of popcorn …
ND
Source:
http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2024/07/cut-out-and-keep-labours-energy-fantasy.html
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