Artifice

Copilot appeared, unrequested and uninvited, on my desktop recently. So I asked Microsoft’s AI thingy to write a blog post of 300 words on the Toronto real estate market stats unleashed this morning. In the style of Garth Turner. And this pathetic blog.

Here’s what she spewed. In four seconds.

Well, here we are. The spring market came and went, and what do we have? A glut of listings, hesitant buyers, and prices that just won’t budge.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reports 30,964 active listings—the highest in nearly 25 years. That’s right, folks. The floodgates have opened, and sellers are scrambling to offload properties before things get worse.

Sales? Down 13.3% year-over-year. Buyers, once desperate to get in, are now sitting on their hands, watching affordability improve while waiting for the next shoe to drop. The average selling price? $1,120,879, down 4% from last year. Detached homes saw 2,998 sales, a 10.6% decline, while condos took an even bigger hit—down 25.1%.

Why the slowdown? Economic uncertainty, rising inventory, and the realization that real estate isn’t a guaranteed path to riches. The days of bidding wars and blind offers are fading. Buyers have options, and they’re using them.

For years, this market defied gravity. But now, reality is setting in. The question isn’t whether prices will fall—it’s how far they’ll go. If you’re still clinging to the belief that Toronto real estate is invincible, you might want to rethink that.

Stay tuned. The reckoning isn’t over yet.

While this was happening, the Bank of Canada chickened out on rates, holding the line. And TACO manned up with a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum. That hurts. Our entire sector has only two markets – us and them. Now ‘them’ will soon be gone. And (as I write this) Canada has no tariffs on metals imports – which is why Chinese steel is building public infrastructure in BC and Alberta. (Shame.)

First, AI. A new survey finds 90% of Ivy League uni students in the States are using it to scam courses. After all, why learn when you can just command? Studying takes such valuable time away from TikTok. By the way, four in ten professors also say they use AI to write courses, lesson plans, lectures and even  grade papers.

So why bother going to school?

To get a degree, of course, so you nab a job using AI to pretend you’re working from home. Yes, our glorious youth, to whom we throw the torch of human achievement, have it figured out. We are so pooched.

But, wait. What about Copilot’s summary above? Worthy analysis?

Almost. Sales have fallen in most markets (Victoria and Montreal are outliers), listings have swelled, inventory is the highest in years, DOM is bloating and prices have been slowly melting. Now look at the economic reality. Unemployment is rising in Canada and nears 9% in the GTA. This tariff stuff is very real, and about to get worse (Taco is pissed at being called TACO.) Mortgage rates are stuck in the fours. A million families are renewing home loans this year at higher costs. Layoffs are coming. And politicians have no immediate quick fixes.

Given all that, a 4% drop in average prices is, well, close to zilch. In Vancouver it’s even less – 2.9%, year/year. Calgary’s benchmark price fade is merely 2.5%.

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

Say Toronto realtors: “Home ownership costs are more affordable this year compared to last. Average selling prices are lower, and so too are borrowing costs. All else being equal, sales should be up relative to 2024. The issue is a lack of economic confidence. Once households are convinced that trade stability with the United States will be established and/or real options to mitigate our reliance on the United States exist, home sales will pick up.”

In Vancouver they say: ”On a year-to-date basis, sales in 2025 rank among the slowest to start the year in the past decade, closely mirroring the trends seen in 2019 and 2020. It’s worth noting that sales rebounded significantly in the latter half of 2020, but whether sales in 2025 might follow a similar pattern remains the million-dollar question.”

The answer is no. Unless we have another pandemic or the central bank loses its grip and slashes rates. That would not occur unless the country slumped into a grinding recession. And you can bet the new boss in Ottawa ain’t about to let that occur – even if it means more deficit spending.

The Canadian housing market is showing weird courage in the face of a big, orange existential threat. It could be delusion on the part of homeowners, real estate floggers or sellers. A few days ago I referenced a 17-foot-wide row house in mid-town Toronto and a realtor trying for multiple bids by establishing an offer day. The list price was $2.1 million. No offers came. So it was relisted for $2.2 million. Just sold for $2 million.

The only blood in the gutter is flowing from the condo towers, chock full of troubled assignment sales. The rest of the market is on hold. Waiting. For a collapse, or sudden FOMO?

Dunno. Neither does AI. Be careful, kids.

About the picture: “Our last dog was Linda,” writes Daniel. “She was a Samoyed mixed with American Eskimo.  She lived to be 18.  This photo was on a camping trip a couple years ago.    Torrential downpour ruined the evenings cooking plan, so I got in the car and went in search of plan B.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.