Former Fed Employee Warns: The Economy Is Breaking (Video)
Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist and creator of the “Sahm Rule” recession indicator, has warned that the U.S. economy is facing significant, quiet shifts that suggest it is breaking. She highlights that the post-pandemic labor market, combined with policy changes under the Trump administration, is creating a “low-hire, low-fire” environment that traditional indicators might miss.
Sahm believes the “tectonic plates” of the economy have shifted, making traditional recession indicators less reliable. The labor market is experiencing strange behavior, with reduced worker availability due to other outside influencers like immigration policies and a reluctance by employers to hire. She has expressed concern that the Fed has acted too slowly on interest rate cuts, identifying the Federal Reserve itself as a major risk to economic recovery. Sahm warns that potential tariffs and policy changes could lead to a “stagflationary impulse,” characterized by higher inflation and lower growth.
While her namesake rule was triggered in 2024, she cautioned at the time that it might not accurately reflect a traditional recession, though it still indicated serious underlying weaknesses. Sahm expressed her economic views over time between 2024 to the current date.
https://youtu.be/MqI6PnRq0kM
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