S&P 500 Hits New High, Market Retreats as Next Fed Chief Named

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) had a remarkably subdued week compared to other markets. The U.S. stock market index hit a new record high close of 6,978.59 on Tuesday, 27 January 2026, but went on to retreat about 0.4% from that high to end the week at 6,939.03 at the close of trading on Friday, 30 January 2026, which was a little over 0.3% below where it ended the previous week.

Most of the S&P 500′s decline took place on Friday, 30 January and was relatively muted compared to what happened with gold and silver, which dropped by 9.1% and 26% respectively.

All three markets were affected by investors’ reaction to President Donald Trump’s announcement he would appoint Kevin Warsh to be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. The appointment of Warsh, who is perceived as an inflation hawk based on his previous stint at the Fed, affirmed investors the Fed’s independence was not at risk. That in turn sparked the large drops in the precious metals as a “safe-haven” hedge.

Meanwhile, Warsh’s appointment left investor expectations for what will happen with U.S. interest rates in 2026 unchanged. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continues to project the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady until 17 June (2026-Q2), when it anticipates a quarter point rate cut. The tool forecasts a better than 50% chance of another quarter point reduction on 28 October (2026-Q4). Had President Trump nominated a different candidate, the probabilities of more and larger rate cuts would likely have increased.

All this leaves the S&P 500′s trajectory consistent with the level the dividend futures-based model sets for investors focusing on the future quarter of 2026-Q2.

Here are more of the market moving news headlines that influenced investor expectations during the week that was.

Monday, 26 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Winter storm snarls US travel, forces mass flight cancellations
• Oil prices rise as harsh winter disrupts US output

• US oil capital Houston buzzes as industry limbers up for Venezuela oil rush
• OPEC+ likely to maintain oil production pause for March as prices climb, sources say

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• Chinese automakers and government discuss chip shortage and exports
• China pledges policy support for beef and dairy sectors

BOJ minions getting set to keep Japan’s currency from collapsing:

• BOJ sees boost to inflation from weak yen becoming larger
• Yen hits over two-month high, markets on alert for intervention

• Japan PM vows to act against speculative market moves after yen spike
• BOJ money market data suggests Japan did not intervene in currency market on Friday

ECB minions developing intricate plan to not do much:

• ECB must be cautious in acting preemptively against uncertainty, Kocher says

Wall Street indexes close higher ahead of earnings, Fed meeting

• Gold races to $5,100 record peak on frantic safe-haven demand

• Gold miner shares jump as bullion prices hit $5,100/oz record high

Tuesday, 27 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil holds steady as US storm disruption offset by Kazakhstan restart
• US core capital goods orders rise for fifth straight month, boosting economic outlook
• US single-family home prices jump in November, FHFA says

Bigger profits developing on paper in China:

• Chinese industrial profit rises in 2025, first time in four years

BOJ minions / Bigger trouble developing in Japan:

• A crisis of confidence in the yen looms over Japan PM Takaichi’s election gamble

• FX intervention justified if yen moves rapid, Japan business lobby head says

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• Europe must overhaul rules or risk economic decline, banking group warns

S&P 500 closes at new record as investors await big tech earnings, Fed decision

• S&P 500 marks closing record as corporate earnings roll in; Medicare rates hit insurers

• US health insurers slump after 2027 Medicare Advantage payments proposal disappoints

Gold vaults past $5,200 to record high

Wednesday, 28 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices hover around four-month high, buoyed by weak dollar and US storm
• Trump says value of the dollar is ‘great’, currency hits 4-year low

Fed minions hold U.S. interest rates steady, as expected:

• Fed expected to hold rates steady as rate-cut pause begins
• Fed leaves rates unchanged, sees ‘elevated’ inflation and stabilizing job market

• Key quotes from Fed Chair Powell’s news conference
• For Fed, uptick in bank lending may add to case against rate cuts
• Fed almost incidental to market swirl

Trump predicts interest rates will come down after he announces Fed chair pick

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• Chinese buyers and sellers expect gold rush to continue despite record prices
• China soaks up the crude oil glut, but only if the price is right

BOJ minions thinking about when to hike Japan’s interest rates again, also thinking about acting to bail out Japan’s currency:

• Weak yen, labour crunch key to BOJ rate hike timing, minutes show
• Japan may hold off on yen intervention for now, ex-BOJ official says

Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone, ECB minions starting to worry about value of Euro:

• Germany cuts growth forecasts amid slow recovery
• ECB would need to act if euro keeps gaining, says Austria’s central bank governor

• Why the euro’s rise to $1.20 is a big deal

Markets see ‘boring’ reaction to Fed’s pause with U.S. stocks flat

• U.S. stocks end flat as Fed pauses rate cuts; Nasdaq rises as chip stocks rally

• S&P 500 breaches 7,000 points for the first time, lifted by AI optimism

Gold nears $5,400/oz, rally gains momentum as uncertainties mount

Thursday, 29 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Brent crude tops $70 per barrel on Iran attack concerns

• Oil holds near six-month high as investors track US-Iran tensions

US factory orders rebound in November on commercial aircraft demand

Fed minions expected to cut rates later rather than sooner,

• Investors bet on later Fed cuts to support markets after pause

Bigger stimulus developing in China:

• China reportedly drops rules that sparked property crisis, developer shares surge

Bigger trouble developing in Japan:

• Japan leans on US backing, tactical silence in war on yen bears

S&P 500, Nasdaq close down as Big Tech’s soaring AI budgets trigger flight

• Gold nears $5,600 as safe-haven rush intensifies; silver blazes past $120
• Copper hits record high above $14,000 as speculators pile in

Friday, 30 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil forceast to hover near $60/bbl, as oversupply outweighs geopolitical risks
• US producer prices rose 0.5% in December, more than expected, on uptick in services inflation

Fed minions find out who their new boss will be, divided on whether and when to cut U.S. interest rates next:

• Trump taps ex-Fed insider Warsh to lead world’s top central bank

• Five things to know about Kevin Warsh, Trump’s ‘central casting’ Fed chair pick
• Fed’s Miran assumes Warsh will fill his governor slot at central bank – CNBC

Fed’s Musalem says no more rate cuts needed with policy now at neutral level

Fed’s Bowman still supports rate cuts despite backing pause at recent meeting

Bigger trouble, insurer bailout developing in China:

• China logs first fiscal revenue drop since 2020 on property slump, weak consumption
• China’s surging exports a sign of global metals turmoil
• China’s factory activity expected to stall at start of new year: Reuters poll
• China plans $29 billion special bonds to recapitalise insurers, Bloomberg News reports

BOJ minions counting on jawboning to keep Japan’s yen from crashing, get better inflation data:

• Japan’s FX market intervention limited to verbal warnings, MoF data shows
• Core inflation in Tokyo slows, still on track to hit BOJ goal

U.S. stocks end the week in the red as tech sell-off deepens

• Gold and Silver Plunge in Worst Day Since 1980

• How Kevin Warsh just helped blow up world’s hottest trade

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow toolestimate of real GDP growth in the U.S. during 2025-Q4 gained a tick, rising to +5.4% from the +5.3% growth it projected a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear who are both wearing suits attending a press conference in which the next candidate to be the Chair of the Federal Reserve is being introduced. The bear asks ‘So what’s this guy going to do when he gets the job?’”