Hallelujah

And just when you thought things could not get more squirrelly…

US-Iran peace talks fizzled. Trump made Vance wear it. Then the American navy said it would block the you-know-what. Iran said people in Utah would soon think nostalgically about $4 gas.

That, of course, prompted Trump to lash out at the Pope. Leo is ‘weak on crime and terrible for foreign policy,” the president said. He called the pontiff “very Liberal” and said the American-born was only in charge of the church, “because I’m in the White House”.

The pope shot back: “I have no fear of the Trump administration, or speaking out loudly of the message of the Gospel, which is what I believe I am here to do.” He called for peace and an end to killing – which seems to be his job – even as the American Secretary of War said his country’s unprovoked attack on Iran was being carried out, “in the name of Jesus”.

And speaking of The Saviour, Trump has posted this picture. Seriously.

This is not going well. And it’s not over. Oil shot higher. Stocks opened lower. Bond yields rose again. Trump has no boundaries, guardrails, constraints or norms. Nations do not know how to react or respond. Corporations cannot make stable, prudent long-term plans. Nor can Pete and Marnie summon the confidence to buy that fetching sidesplit in Burnaby. These days the whole world is living vicariously on the vapours, whims and iconoclasms of an 80-year-old with keys to the world’s most powerful military machine.

So, yes, 2026 is going to be a real estate wipeout.

Here’s some new evidence of what the economic climate has done to buyer intentions. Over the last few weeks in the mighty GTA market 14,400 families and owners decided to sell their properties. That’s about normal for the pre-spring season in the Big Smoke.

But the buyers stayed home. Fewer than 4,900 sales took place (in a region of over six million souls), which is just half the usual amount. Real estate site HouseSigma says March transactions were the lowest in its database covering the last 23 years. Lower than Covid. Worse than the Credit Crisis of 2008.

As a result, prices dropped again. Down 7.4% from a year earlier. Off 26% from the peak in 2022. And at the same time, the Iran war has pushed mortgage rates up. The benchmark Government of Canada five-year bond yield rose again today.

RBC, in its latest report, says the war is just one factor turning buyers into wusses.

“The arrival of milder weather has yet to boost confidence. Buyers still worry about many things from a trade war to a major geopolitical conflict, a tough job market and strained affordability in parts of the country,” it says. “Odds are the picture will stay mixed until much of the economic uncertainty has lifted.”

By the way, the bank says “wary buyers” will keep the GTA market depressed. “Home values keep falling as a result. We see this downward trend persisting near term amid strained (albeit improving) affordability, tariff-related economic uncertainty, challenging job prospects, lower immigration, and abundant inventory.”

In Van, no better. “Confidence issues hold back demand and more ample inventory fuels seller competition,” says the bank. “Vancouver’s MLS HPI was down 6.8% from a year ago in March.  This is the fastest rate of decline since the spring of 2023 when spiking interest rates caused an abrupt cooling of the market.”

And in Cowtown, house prices “have yet to steady.” Supply, it turns out, has overwhelmed demand. “A historic ramp-up in homebuilding since 2022 has contributed to homes for sale reaching a seven-year high in 2025, ultimately weighing on prices. We expect home values to continue easing in the short term as more supply comes to the market.”

Against this backdrop of flaccid enthusiasm, rising household costs, plunging confidence and swelling anxiety, governments keep telling us houses cost too much because there aren’t enough of them. Clearly that is not the case today. Inventory is rising, prices are falling. And yet Ottawa is throwing another $13 billion into the pot for new construction.

By the way, there are 305,000 resale properties on MLS this morning. In Toronto alone, add in another 20,000 in new, unsold units. We’re not yet at the bottom of the curve.

To change things now would take a real miracle. The second coming. Oh, wait…

About the picture: “I have news,” writes Ann.  “My dog Chip, who, last we heard, was living in the lap of luxury, rent-free with hot and cold running servants attending to his every whim. Sadly, things have taken a turn for the worse. Willow, a beautiful black bitch and the love of his life started strutting around the neighbourhood impregnated by the new kid on the block. She just gave birth to seven pups. Chip was inconsolable. He is looking for a new companion and noticed that some of the dogs on your blog have expired. He’s wondering if there are any live, single and available dogs on your site that like short men. If so, he’s wondering if you could post his picture and ask around. Thank you.”

To be in touch, or to send a picture of your horny beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/04/13/hallelujah-2/