The S&P 500 Clocks a New Record High as Geopolitics Hold Index Back from Rising Higher

The second-longest ever winning streak for the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) was broken on Monday, 20 April 2026. The streak had endured for 13 days, one short of the all time record.

While the streak was broken, all was not bad for Wall Street bulls, who could celebrate the index hitting a new all-time record high closing value of 7,165.08 on Friday, 24 April 2026.

The streak largely came about as a result of the cease fire in the Iran War, which was at risk of ending before President Trump announced an extension during the past week. The markets new highs came in response to that event, the prospect of diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran soon resuming, and the strength of earnings out of the market’s technology sector.

All these things kept the trajectory of the S&P 500 running along the bottom end of the redzone forecast range we added to the alternative futures chart back in February, as shown in its latest update. That range assumes investors would be focused on the current quarter of 2026-Q2, which they certainly have been, even with the disruption of the Iran war geopolitical event.

The centerline of the redzone forecast range provides a reasonable estimate of where the S&P 500 would have gone in the absence of the Iran war. From Friday, 17 April 2026 through Friday, 24 April 2026, the index has ranged between 2.5 and 3.0% below that trajectory, which is to say the geopolitical event is keeping the S&P 500 from rising even higher.

What happens next for the S&P 500 will be determined by investor reactions to the random onset of new information. Here are the market-moving headlines that affected the trajectory of the index during the week that was.

Monday, 20 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices rise anew after a US-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz strands tankers

Future chief Fed minions goes up for Senate interview:

• Fed chief nominee Warsh commits to central bank’s independence, with limits

• Fed chair nominee Warsh has big ideas. Here are some, in his own words

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China curtailing, not banning fuel exports, shipping data shows

BOJ minions expected to pass on hiking rates in April, but look forward to June 2026:

• Exclusive: BOJ is likely to hold off raising rates in April, sources say

• Japan households’ inflation expectations steady, BOJ April hike bets fade

BOJ’s hawkish hints keep rate hike on the cards

ECB minions thinking about getting more data before ditching their perfect monetary policy:

• ECB needs more data before firm policy conclusions, Lagarde says

Wall Street closes slightly down on renewed tensions between US, Iran

• Wall Street ends down as the U.S.-Iran peace deal remains uncertain

Tuesday, 21 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices climb 5% after Trump says he does not want to extend Iran ceasefire

• US crude and fuel exports surge to record highs, but it’s not enough
• Record surge in gasoline receipts boosts US retail sales, but weakness is looming
• Price hikes, outlook cuts – What airlines are doing as fuel costs surge

US pending home sales beat expectations in March

Prospective new chief minion calls for ‘regime change’ at Fed, current Fed minions weigh in with suggestions:

• Warsh calls for ‘regime change’ at Fed, new inflation approach

• As Warsh faces hearing, a framework for smaller Fed balance sheet emerges
• Five things we learned at Fed nominee Warsh’s Senate hearing

Fed’s Waller calls for overhaul of regional Fed bank operations

• Fed’s Waller would ‘absolutely’ oppose firing reserve bank presidents over rate disagreement

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s youth jobless rate rises to 16.9% in March
• China targets 100 trillion yuan services sector by 2030 in upgrade push

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• Germany’s big carmakers used to lead the race in China, but now they’re ‘for the parents’

ECB minions priming to leave Eurozone interest rates unchanged, think private credit is a threat:

• ECB must keep cool head on rates amid Iran war, de Guindos says
• ECB sees private credit as risk to financial stability, de Guindos says

Wall Street extends losses as a U.S.-Iran resolution remains uncertain

Wednesday, 22 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Trump extends Iran ceasefire, maintains Hormuz blockade

• Oil prices rise after reports container ships in Hormuz hit by gunfire
• How the Iran war oil and gas supply shock compares with past disruptions

Fed minions expected to cut U.S. interest rates before end of 2026:

• Fed rate cut pushed back to late 2026 on war-related inflation risks

Bigger stimulus developing in China:

• China unveils plan to make cities more youth, child friendly

BOJ minions worried about Iran war dragging out:

• BOJ warns prolonged Mideast tensions could raise costs, corporate defaults

S&P 500, Nasdaq end at record as Trump extends ceasefire deadline with Iran

• S&P, Nasdaq close at records on Iran ceasefire extension, earnings

• S&P 500 PE looks cheap, but high oil prices still pose a threat

Thursday, 23 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Brent crude futures jump on Trump’s threats over Strait of Hormuz

• Trump on gas prices: Americans should expect to pay more ‘for a little while’
• Record demand can’t save US airlines from Iran war fuel shock

• American Airlines dims 2026 forecast as high fuel costs hurt margins
• Trump administration nears $500 million Spirit rescue as Iran fuel shock hits airlines

US fixed 30-year mortgage rate drops to 6.23%

New grads are finding jobs faster despite a competitive job market, says report

Fed minions thinking about what they mean when they say they have a 2% inflation target, maybe cutting rates in late 2026:

• A Warsh-led Fed’s 2% inflation goal might be a different 2%
• Fed rate cut pushed back to late 2026 on war-related inflation risks: Reuters poll

ECB minions expected to ditch their perfect monetary policy with rate hikes in June 2026:

• ECB to raise rates in June on war-driven inflation but path beyond unclear

Meanwhile, bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:

• Euro zone business activity contracted in April as costs rocketed, PMI shows

U.S. stocks end lower as conflict in the Strait of Hormuz intensifies

• Stocks close lower on fading hopes for quick Iran deal, mixed quarterly earnings

Friday, 24 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices fall on report Iran foreign minister to arrive in Pakistan for peace talks
• 20,000 job cuts at Meta, Microsoft raise concern that AI-driven labor crisis is here

Incoming chief Fed minion wants better inflation data, has path to secure Senate confirmation cleared as DOJ bends to Senator Tillis’ demand to end criminal probe of Fed:

• Warsh’s quest for better inflation data is a well-worn, difficult pursuit for Fed
• DOJ drops criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell, removes hurdle for Warsh confirmation

• Tillis Praises Warsh but Says He Won’t Back Him for Fed Chair

Pervasive AI technologies and bigger stimulus developing in China:

• DeepSeek previews new AI model adapted to run on Huawei chips

• After call from Beijing, China’s auto industry races to embed AI in just about everything
• China to curb US investment in tech companies, Bloomberg News reports
• White House accuses China of industrial-scale theft of AI technology

China first-quarter fiscal spending quickens as Beijing seeks to spur growth

BOJ minions get reason to not hike rate this month:

• Japan’s core inflation stays below BOJ target, energy risks grow

S&P 500, Nasdaq snatch another record as U.S. continues ceasefire negotiations with Iran

• S&P 500, Nasdaq close at records on tech lift, Iran peace talk hopes
• US chipmakers hit record highs as Intel turbocharges AI rally

• Intel forecasts second-quarter revenue above estimates, shares jump 19%

Most US companies seen sticking with quarterly reporting

More than 25% chance the S&P 500 will hit 8,000 in 2026 – Kalshi

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continued to anticipate no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, though with a growing bias toward a quarter point rate cut over time.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool forecast of real GDP growth in 2026-Q1 ticked down to +1.2%, dipping from its projection of +1.3% growth a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull who is excited the S&P 500 closed at a new record high of 7,165.08 on Friday, 24 April 2026″.