Unhinged

Is it time to worry?

Nah, says Ryan, my snappy colleague with deep experience and a trophy wife. “Our base-case view remains that President Trump will ultimately pullback from this war,” he wrote here yesterday, “and a recession will be avoided this year, in which case the recent market pullback could ultimately prove to be another buying opportunity.”

In our world, that’s the consensus view. This year is set to deliver outsized corporate earnings – up 17%. Stocks are looking cheaper. And this war will end. They always do. Like hurricanes, ice storms and pandemics, there’s a point at which investors flip from being afraid to hungry. The best strategy is to stay invested through any disaster. But if you’re an opportunist, many analysts say, this is an opportunity.

America is spending a billion a day without winning the war. After getting their missing flyboy back, and with oil surging over $110 a barrel, maybe this is the time to walk away? After all, what option do the aggressors have?

So the base-case scenario has been that US forces stand down, with $4-a-gallon gas at the pumps and a political tsunami coming in November’s midterms. Discretion, we know, is the better part of valour.

But wait. Trump just posted this (on Easter Sunday morning, no less, to show how Christian he’s become…)

There is so much wrong with this message.

Blowing up civilian infrastructure is a war crime. This is what Russia does. Not America.

Profanity belies weakness and emotion. The opposite of what we wish in the most powerful person. Yes, the guy with a finger on the red button.

And dissing a world religion (two billion people or a quarter of humanity are Muslim) makes the US president sound like a blood-hungry Crusader in 1217. Even Pope Leo has told Trump to get stuffed.

In a few hours when futures trading starts we’ll know how Mr. Market will react. Are these the hollow, ugly words of an unhinged leader who can no longer be taken as credible? Or advance warning a lethal military is about to open up a far wider war?

On the face of it, the president is threatening a 2,500-year-old country by returning it to ‘the Stone Age where it belongs’ and terrifying the very population he tried to inspire into rebellion. He’s close to unravelling NATO. He has enriched Russia through high oil prices and dropped sanctions. He’s made China, the other superpower, look stable, reasonable and sagacious. And he’s created what experts call the greatest single energy crisis in history.

Meanwhile the regime in Iran stands. They still have their uranium. And the Strait of Hormuz stays shut.

How crazy is Trump?

We’ll know on Tuesday.

Chill.

The buying opportunity may soon gap wider.

About the picture: “I’m a pilot and have had opportunities to work around the world,” writes Francois. “I’ve done extended contracts in Europe before. After the pandemic and what felt like a rough decade under Trudeau, my family and I weren’t exactly thrilled with the direction Canada seemed to be going. So when an opportunity came up in Dubai, we took it. The company paid for everything, relocation, schooling for the kids, healthcare (which is excellent, by the way), and a very good salary. On paper it was an incredible opportunity.

And for a while, it was. Until it wasn’t.

Recently things here escalated. I happened to be stuck overseas for work when the missiles and drones started coming over. My wife was home alone with the kids. Dubai isn’t Gaza, and thankfully there haven’t been many casualties, but it’s still unsettling living in what feels like a war zone. When a missile gets intercepted by anti-aircraft systems, the explosion sounds like a pirate cannon going off, almost like the one at the Halifax Citadel. It happens throughout the day sometimes. Just yesterday a drone flew low over our compound. Fighter jets overhead have become so common that you almost stop noticing them. My kids can now identify an F-16 when they see one.

It definitely gives you perspective. If Canadians are thinking about leaving for opportunities abroad, my advice would be: think carefully. Canada actually isn’t that bad. We’re incredibly lucky to have that passport. I’ve met people from all over the world working here who would love to move to Canada but simply can’t.

For now, our plan is to stick it out a little longer, but if this conflict drags on I’d be surprised if we’re still here by summer. 

I’ve attached a few photos of our big, goofy Bernese Mountain Dog, Abigail. We insisted on bringing her with us which was not cheap. While Abby would probably prefer a snowy trail back in Canada, she’s surprisingly taken a liking to the beach. In the end she’s a Bernese, she just wants to be wherever the family is.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/04/05/unhinged-4/