ES Morning Update July 26th 2024
Getting close now to the low. Charts everywhere are oversold or very near it. My big question is… “Will this low finish the correction?”. That’s something I don’t know for sure as while I do see a strong rally back up after the low I do not know if it’s the rally up to new, even higher highs, or a lower high. My lean is for a lower high, a larger B wave basically, then a C down in September. Here’s what I posted in the chatroom yesterday.
The reason I feel this way is because the weekly chart needs more time to “cool off” before another strong multi-month rally to new all time highs. It is pointing down on the MACD and the RSI, so it’s going to be very hard to stage a long lasting rally with such negative downward pressure on the market.
But another higher high is still likely because the monthly chart is still bullish with no sighs of a final high yet. In fact, this month of July has put in higher volume on it then prior months, so that’s another clue the bull market isn’t finished yet. Now that doesn’t mean we can’t have a good sized correction but there should not be anything like 2022.
That entire year the market was under the 200 daily simple moving average and we’ve been above it ever since. Could we pierce through it for awhile? Sure, but we shouldn’t stay under it for a year like 2022 as the MACD’s on the monthly chart back then was going down, so was the volume. It’s still pointing up now, so this market has not seen any final high in my opinion.
As for the short term, I still think we will bottom in by next Monday, and we might have bottomed yesterday… I’m not sure? But we are close right now.
Have a great weekend.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2024/07/26/es-morning-update-july-26th-2024/
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