ES Morning Update July 29th 2024
It appears that we bottomed last Thursday so this coming end of the month or first of the next period, where “turns” commonly happen, should be skipped. But I don’t think we are off to a new higher high yet. There’s very likely another drop coming but it might not happen until mid-late August. Meaning we could go into a choppy period for several weeks to carve out what is likely a B wave up with the A down ending last week. This is all about the weekly chart basically, which is still putting downward pressure on the market and needs a good 1-2 months of “time” to reset.
While I’m thinking there’s a lower low coming on the C wave it’s also possible that it never happens and instead we just chop long enough to “cool off” the overbought weekly chart enough to allow the next strong rally up to new all time highs again. I don’t think we are done on the upside as many “clues” point to a final high in September, so “time” is very key here.
If the bulls can hold the price up above the current low for long enough there’s no need to make that C wave down. What I’ll be looking closely at is how high we go in the next week or so on the bounce. If it’s high enough (above 50% retrace from the low) then the next pullback could make a right shoulder in an “inverted head and shoulders” pattern. If that happens, and we have oversold short term technicals, then I’ll lean toward “no lower low” and the next rally should make a higher high in September.
As for today we are getting close to overbought on the 2hr chart but the 6hr still has plenty of room to go higher, so my thoughts are that we go up into Tuesday/Wednesday and pullback for a higher low Thursday/Friday.
Have a blessed day.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2024/07/29/es-morning-update-july-29th-2024/
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