ES Morning Update September 5th 2025
The market grinded higher yesterday and pretty much did a double top into the close. Today we could see a breakout that rallies up (finally) to hit the FP on the SPY of 655.66, which it should piece by some small amount just like it did with the April low. Remember that the FP’s I had back then were for 483.07 and 483.62 on the SPY.
Rare to get two of them but they did mark the low of the correction. The downward pressure was strong then and the pierce through those FP’s resulted in a low of 479.47 on the SPY, which is roughly 40 points on the SPX/ES. If we do that again we could see the 6600 area hit, but it’s been my experience that “pierces” on the upside tend to be less then “pierces” on the downside. Maybe we only do 20 points through it… I’m not sure? But when we finally hit 655.66 on the SPY it’s “Go Time” for me on shorting this pig.
If it goes a little higher I’m fine with that as it shouldn’t be a whole lot. If we see it today it would be a perfect trap over the weekend to keep the bulls long seeing the breakout to a new high as bullish. They will all be looking for much higher prices, but for me I trust the FP’s as while I may not know the “when” part on them hitting they have proven to me to be very accurate for “turns” in the market. If hit today I’ll be shorting it. I still think the first low will be around the 11th/12th next week, which will be the A wave.
Then a choppy move up into OPEX with the FED day on Wednesday being the main focus the market will have. But it should be just a B wave up and the C down into the 22nd-24th should follow. It doesn’t matter what Powell does, or doesn’t do. The market will find a reason to continue lower and rate cut or no rate cut will be spun as bearish. If you have been patiently waiting like me for the upside FP to short then you need to stay alert today as we might see it.
Have a great weekend.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2025/09/05/es-morning-update-september-5th-2025/
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