Q4 Earnings Recap: US Large-Cap is Peerless
- US large-cap is on a level of its own.
- Value-oriented markets take a step back.
- Earnings have become even more important as global markets face uncertainty.
While the world focuses on the ”war in Iran,”:https://www.riverfrontig.com/insights/iran-keeping-perspective-in-uncertain-times/ we would remind investors that corporate earnings trends are a more profound driver of stock prices over the intermediate-term than geopolitics. As such, moving forward we will be looking to earnings to help inform our scenario analysis. In the meantime, with almost all of the S&P 500 now having reported for the fourth quarter of 2025, it is time to step into the doctor’s office and perform our quarterly earnings season ‘checkup’. As always, our proverbial stethoscope for this ‘checkup’ is our three ‘earnings principles’:
- Earnings/Revenue Surprises: Were corporate results out of alignment with market expectations?
- Analyst Adjustments: What was the direction and magnitude of analysts’ estimate revisions after forward guidance was issued
- Earnings/Revenue Trends: What is the long-term earnings trend?
While we are looking for general earnings ‘health’, there are three questions we would specifically like to answer:
- Have tariffs caused disruptions in earnings?
- Are there any signs of ‘AI’ slowdown?
- Are earnings providing a catalyst for value-oriented equities?
Keeping these questions in mind, let’s start our ‘checkup’ with US large-cap equities. Overall, earnings remain strong and don’t seem to be showing signs of either tariff disruption or ‘AI’ slowdown. Starting with our first principle: S&P 500 aggregate earnings were 6.8% higher than analyst expectations, with only the utility sector posting earnings lower than expectation. Technology earnings were even stronger, surpassing expectations by 7.6%.
Source: https://etfdb.com/etf-strategist-channel/us-large-cap-peerless/
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