ES Morning Update May 15th 2026
The market continues to grind higher, day after day, with no let up for the trapped bears. This should continue into Monday or Tuesday of next week to finish (finally!) Small Wave 3 up. We are in Tiny Wave 5 up now and it should reach the 7600 zone where there is strong resistance at. In fact, I was given a possible FP on the SPY of 759.35 from a member of the chatroom, which is maybe 7610-7620 on the SPX, and a little higher on the ES of course. Here’s that FP…
I posted on X this week a chart of the wave count, and that still stands as “most likely”. But I don’t know how deep the pullback will be for Small Wave 4 down. However, it should be bigger then all the smaller pullbacks we’ve had since the start of Small Wave 3 up. Meaning it should be 150-200 points (at least), and could be deeper, but I don’t see more then 400 points. For example, if we reach 7600 then 7200 for the pullback would be the most I could see. I really don’t expect it to be more then 300 though, which would be around the 7300 zone on the SPX, and that would be about a 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level starting at the March 30th low where I’m starting from. Assuming we reach 7600 then 7300 is about that 23.6% retrace point, whereas the low 7100′s would be 38.2%, and that’s just not likely. Below is that chart posted on X…
Lastly let’s look at the bigger picture again. We are still likely in Medium Wave 5 up from that March 30th low, which should end in early June, and it will complete Large Wave 5, which started at the April 4th, 2025 low. Once this completes we should see a large drop that will likely last into October and should fill the gap on the ES at 5339 from April 22nd, 2025. But, I suspect the first drop will reach the 600.14 FP on the SPY within 2 months, and then we rally into August/September, and do the last drop into October to finish it all. After that I expect another massive rally that will go into 2027 and 2028 for what should be the final blow off top similar to 1929. From there the real bear market will start. Here’s that chart…
Have a great weekend.
Source: https://reddragonleo.com/2026/05/15/es-morning-update-may-15th-2026/
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