Owning Up to What We Owe
- US national debt held by the public now stands at around 100% of GDP — approaching post-WWII highs and well above the 90% threshold that academic research flags as a danger zone for growth.
- Despite these worrisome milestones, the US retains several important advantages that, in our view, make an imminent crisis unlikely — including economic dynamism, the dollar’s reserve currency status, and an enormous asset base.
- We identify three key warning lights to monitor: a spike in long-term interest rates, persistent elevated inflation, and a meaningful decline in the US dollar.
- History shows that large debt burdens can be reduced — the US itself did it after WWII through a combination of growth, fiscal discipline, and moderately higher inflation. We believe a similar multi-pronged approach, potentially supercharged by AI-driven productivity, represents the most plausible path forward.
- The time to start is now — not because a crisis is imminent, but because the longer we wait, the harder and more painful the adjustment becomes.
It’s now the dog days of summer… beautiful weather has returned, and most of the world is currently paying more attention to World Cup goals than fiscal goals. So today is a bit of a departure for us. Rather than focusing on actionable stock market matters, we want to step back and address a less tactical topic that we believe is crucial for the long-term health of American capital markets — and, frankly, for the country we love. After recently being asked to speak to the National Federalism Committee – a non-partisan government organization that advocates for a balanced relationship between the states and the federal government – on the worrying state of the national debt, we felt compelled to put our thoughts down on paper.
Source: https://etfdb.com/etf-strategist-channel/owing-up-owe/
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