ES Morning Update July 16th 2026
The market is still highly likely to decline this month, but it is taking the slow path to start. The target of 692 on the SPY is still likely to get hit, but it’s extending in “time”, where the 23rd should not be “the low” but just a low of some wave 1 (of C), which a bounce back up for a few days should follow. Then another drop into the first week of August (possibly just the end of July) will be the wave 3, 4 and 5 (inside C) that completes the correction and hits (and pierces) the FP on the SPY of 692. Below is the “best guess” on the wave pattern.
Now I’ve label “possible” dates where certain wave could end, but again, it’s just a “best guess”. This market it taking its’ time in unfolding as it’s still a very bullishly market and it does not want to just rollover and die. Do note that on the wave count chart above I have the wave 2 up inside C down as retracing about 50% of the wave 1 down. That’s just speculation, but it’s based on the fact that the market is so bullishly.
As for the target for the low of wave 1 down inside C, that could be more shallow and end around the double bottom at the end of wave 5 inside A, but I lean toward that support breaking and the support from the June 10th low being the real double bottom that we get the wave 2, of C bounce from. It’s not going to be easy I think as if we see a low next Wednesday or Thursday, which is either at the June 10th double bottom, or the higher one from June 25th, the bounce back up for wave 2 inside C should be strong, and might be a 1-2 day move only?
Then the wave 3 inside C down will take everyone by surprise and once it hits the 692 FP (and pierces) the low will be in… but everyone will be calling for the March 30th low to be next, but it won’t be hit. That’s the “Bear Trap” as the next move up from the FP will just squeeze and squeeze and squeeze and won’t stop until it hits the 787.13 upside FP on the SPY. It could also extend in time, whereas I thought it would do it by mid-September it could drag into early October.
Have a great weekend.
Source: https://reddragonleo.com/2026/07/16/es-morning-update-july-16th-2026/
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