September Swoon

Source: Michael Ballanger 09/08/2025

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his thoughts on the current state of the market and highlights two silver stocks in his portfolio.

After some 47 years of attempting to navigate the treacherous waters of the world of high finance, I have come to the conclusion that I am far too old and grumpy these days to have any semblance of resignation when it comes to government reporting, government accounting, and especially government planning.

After being trained in the science of business administration, majoring in finance from one of the top ten undergraduate business schools in the U.S. (St. Louis University), I embarked on a career in the investment industry applying my training in the analysis of balance sheets and income statements with the intention of finding real value on the minefield of capital markets. As I pored through financial statements back in the 1980′s, I would rarely find anything that was “untoward” in terms of accounting but when there were shenanigans going on, it basically leapt off the page. However, in the 1980s and 1990s, before the Wall Street whiz kids invented the practice of “financial modelling,” there was no such trickery as inserting certain inputs that were done so for the express purpose of tilting the outcome of the study so that the report would shine somewhat more brightly than might be expected without those inputs.

The number of widgets sold in a given reporting period could never be skewed to reflect immigration or people either dying or being born. The number was, as they say, “the number” and it went into my analysis without debate and not subject to critical or subjective review.

Somewhere around the turn of the century, the brainiacs at the Bureau of Labour Statistics began to fiddle with the way important economic gauges were to be calculated. They decided to use a number called “core inflation” which conveniently omitted food and energy from the inflation number, the two household expenses most dearly felt by consumers and the ones that hurt the most while rising. In periods of unbridled swelling of the money supply, these two expenses tended to be the most sensitive to monetary inflation so the government, in order to avoid unsightly criticism over inflationary policies, elected to fix the problem by removing those two very important gauges affecting citizen’s standards of living.

Financial analysts trained in the habit of collecting their own measures of price inflation by sampling monthly budgets for thousands of consumers would become disoriented when their number came in multiples higher than the number trotted out by the BLS. It got even more befuddling when they turned their sights on the employment numbers such that the numbers reported in the ADP began to skew away from the numbers in the Non-Farms Payrolls report. One set of data showed the actual pay slips of new workers as well as the pay slips of all workers so they can actually calculate the exact number of jobs created in any reporting period. As surely as the sun rises in the morning, the financial rocket scientists at the BLS decided to devise an input called “The Birth-Death Model” designed to allow the bean counters to insert it as a moderator (or accelerator) to the actual jobs number, rendering the BLS’ number as a “manufactured” figure designed to make the Wall Street spin doctors the apples of the Washington politician’s eyes.

As an example, for months the commentators at Zerohedge and other social media sites have been pointing to the discrepancies between the numbers collected in the field versus the numbers spewed out by the BLS with no greater eye-opener than the May jobs report where they were forced to revise the number down by 125,000 taking it from a gain of 177,000 — which sent stocks screaming higher — to a gain of only 22,000, which would most certainly been a “miss.”

Every time I turn around, I am confronted with a constant stream of inconsistencies all designed to convey to the American (and North American) citizenry that everything is “awesome” with robust growth and rosy futures for all that choose to “Live Long and Prosper” buying any and all dips in share prices regardless of the army of homeless people living under the Fleet Street Bridge or lined up at the local food bank.

This has metamorphosed from a “minor annoyance” to a “major outrage” because it has become the main reason why methods of analysis honed many years ago during a kindler, simpler era are now outdated and ineffectual when applied to the skullduggery of 2025. More importantly, these “fudged” numbers are costing me a great deal of money and while professional pride can weather the storm of botched calls, net worth statements and angry spouses refuse to be so forgiving.

This morning, the BLS reported an employment number that would have us all believe that the American economy created 22,000 new “breadwinner” jobs confirming that everything is “awesome” and that the Fed will soon cut rates sending stocks screaming into the ionosphere (again). However, as David Rosenberg tweeted out, that magical geek-driven “Birth-Death Model” fabricated a miraculous 96,000 fictitious “new jobs” to the number, without which it would have come in at a negative 74,000, as in 74,000 lost jobs.

Now, the CNBC crowd, under expressed orders from their Wall Street sponsors, had been well ahead of the news cycle with Lance Roberts and Jim Cramer jamming a new narrative that “bad news is good news” such that an NFP “miss” would guarantee a 50-bp rate cute sending stocks screaming higher. And that is exactly what happened because instead of the traders seeing a negative print in the jobs number, they got a positive number, albeit a miss, but not too cold and not too hot, a “Goldilocks-style” number that we all know Wall Street loves.

Unfortunately, traders failed to heed the directive from the powers that be that frequent the hallowed halls of Wall Street because after watching the thundering herd descend upon the unsuspecting holders of U.S. securities in the hour after that manipulated NFP report was released, those very holders decided that bad news (people losing jobs) was actually “bad news” and they turned on a proverbial dime from orgiastic buyers to despondent sellers, taking the Dow Jones Industrials down from its lofty 200-point gain to a 300-point loss, ending the session down 220 points.

The S&P 500 was off 0.32% but the indefatigable NASDAQ bucked the trend and closed a fraction higher (+0.08%).

In all my years of slash-and-burn in the trading arenas, I have never witnessed such a concerted effort by everyone from the American president to the head of Tesla to the anchors on CNBC to paint such a wide swath of lipstick on an economy that most surely is from the porcine species.

The North American economies are in a recession and the only thing disguising it is the insanity surrounding the AI CAPEX blow-out that will possible never achieve any type of justifiable payback in any of our lifetimes.

Data centres the size of a small county in New England are being built everywhere for the expressed purpose of collecting data. That data will be used to train robots to take jobs from the white collar workers like paralegals and financial analysts. It is the massive capital expenditure that is skewing the economic data but when that is over and done, there is nothing coming up the rear as a growth “backup” to justify the P/E’s being sported by U.S. stocks.

I am sick and tired of being subjected to spin and skullduggery and errors-of-omission and outright fraud when it comes to data supposedly collected in good faith and accuracy by state employees that are supposed to be immune from tampering the likes of which we get every single day that alters analysis and skews outcomes.

However, as I take several deep breaths and try to concentrate on “happy thoughts” and “warm feelings,” I am tempted to hurl a large and very unwieldy object into the smiling face of a CNBC anchor. . .

Gold and Silver

On a happier less stressful note, I find it hilarious when stock market analysts like Lance Roberts and Jim Cramer come out of the woodwork and give all-encompassing and highly-bombastic pronouncements on the future course for gold and silver after being essentially absent from the gold and silver narrative for the better part of their stock-pumping lives. I have been at once right and wrong on both gold and silver over a career that covers nearly five decades of consistently commenting on those two metals. Hence, I feel qualified in making comments of both a fundamental and technical nature.

By contrast, I have never traded Bitcoin and only use it as a barometer for risk appetites as it is nearly perfectly correlated with the NASDAQ. That is a simple exercise with nothing too bombastic required because I am not a seasoned analyst in cryptocurrencies so I do not seek nor deserve the right to cast judgement on its future price action. However, while I may be wrong in this assumption, never has anyone seen Jim Cramer invite the CEO’s of major gold or silver mining companies on to his Mad Money show on CNBC. Likewise, Lance Roberts has a podcast that educates the listener on any and all nuances that relate to owning stock and bonds and everything is “how to buy” or “why to buy” while nothing is “how to sell” or “why to sell” unless it is gold.

Today, I very briefly scanned not just a clip but an entire podcast on “how to sell” and “why to sell” gold complete with charts and graphs. Never have I watched a Lance Roberts podcast on “how to buy” or “why to buy” gold so under the Rules of Ballanger, Lance Roberts has not earned the right to lecture unsuspecting investors as to the future price action in gold. I am sure that Lance would object but until I see him actually identify a buying opportunity for gold, I am sticking to my guns. (Incidentally, I like his show and think his comments on the markets are worthy of a watch.)

Gold and silver and now both at stages where they have bridged the gap from “unloved” to “universally liked” which is a phase where the RSI can stay elevated for several weeks. Where it gets tricky is that the momentum gauge (“RSI”) is now in “overbought” territory and while the money flow indicator (“MFI”) is also “stretched,” the longer-term oscillator called the TRIX indicator is nowhere near approaching the overbought conditions of last April. Therefore, while I would normally be inclined to trim down my gold holdings, this time I am going to leave the “safety” on the hair trigger of my “SELL” button and see whether the PM’s can mount a countertrend rally to the equity markets until some time around mid-October before I pull the pin.

The chart I am posting below should illustrate beautifully the points I am making but at the end of the day, the tendency for most gold and silver nutbars like me is to take some money off the table after the last four and a half years of punishment. I am resisting this impulse by staring at the chart below in order to remove the noise from my analysis. Like a dying man coming out of the desert desperately in need of water, I beware the veiled vixen offering me the golden chalice of poison. I await the angel of relief, the reward transcends all comfort.

The Junior Miners

When I went bullish on gold and gold miners at the lows of the bear market in November 2015, little did I suspect that gold then at $1,045 would advance to the current level of $3,640 by 2025. All I knew for an absolute fact was that we had to own it. Over the past ten years, every time I have tried to trade it, I have been left out of any semblance of success because, with rare exception, I was never ever to replace that which I had sold at lower prices. Gold always defied logic and ignored reason and of its own volition powered ahead, leaving all “sophisticated traders” slack-jawed and aghast at is majestic power. The stockroaches on Wall Street that know only the video-game characteristics of the paper markets are non-plussed by gold’s current majesty and elect to turn to the Wall Street barkers and street peddlers for advice.

What they rarely turn to are the services that can show silver bars that came to the owner at a cost of US$4.38 per ounce. Three-hundred ounces bought with a CA$2,000 cheque back in 2003 is today worth $17,000. Junior miners developing million-ounce deposits wide open to depth and along strike trading for ridiculously-low market caps were shunned for years by the investing masses until this year, when finally and at long last, the masses finally found the juniors. As in “best-of-breed,” they are buying silver juniors.

My largest position in the silver market is Carlton Precious Inc (CPI:TSXV; NBRFF:OTCMKTS) whose Esquilache silver project in the Southern Peru Silver Belt was an operating mine in the 1950′s before shutting down in 1960 due to low silver prices.

My next largest position is Silver North Resources Ltd. (SNAG:TSX.V; TARSF: OTCQB) whose operations next to the legendary United Keno Silver Belt are now of legend.

Boomers like me that played in the 1970s precious metals sandbox recall all to well United Keno Hill Mines that went from CA$.60 to CA$60.00 in one blink-of-an-eye year back in 1979-1980.

Both companies have solid management teams and superior projects.

As you have read in this publication for months upon months, silver beguiles me. I try and try and try to trade it and it always refuses to cooperate. When I decide to simply “buy it” and stick it in my mattress, it remains unremarkable until days like today when I open up the vault and finally realize what all that “stacking” is now worth.

Staggering.

Silver is more overbought than gold but there are many more junior silver explorer-developers out there that have not even budged. While we all own two of them, there are not many more.

September Swoon

Investors around the world are now unanimously enamoured with U.S. stocks while insider sales in the month of August were something around 100:1 sales over buys. Insiders who presumably know their businesses are dumping at a rates rarely seen in past campaigns.

For this reason, I continue to urge all subscribers to raise cash and add hedges to their portfolios. If stocks go through a big drawdown, gold and silver miners will not dodge the maelstrom. For this reason, it is time to be hedged.

Beware the September Swoon. . .

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Important Disclosures:

1. Silver North Resources is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Silver North Resources and Carlton Precious Inc.
3. Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
4. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
5. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

( Companies Mentioned: CPI:TSXV;NBRFF:OTCMKTS, SNAG:TSX.V; TARSF: OTCQB, )

Source: https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2025/09/08/september-swoon.html